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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Another look at the 00z EPS . The mean shifted a little NE bjt the spread expanded lol. Clearly two camps, a US hit and offshore/OTS
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Yeah that slight NE shift in the EPS is a welcome sight this morning but still way too early to feel better or panic along the US Coast.... real interested in seeing how the Euro handles H5 with the 12z run today, after being so consistent over the last few days that was a significant change for the Euro at those levels. The most fun part about weather.... wait and watch lol
 
On the current NHC track Irma will pass real close if not through Herbert Box 1, anyone in Florida I bet can tell you a thing or two about that.... paging Phil.
 
We're really just going to have to wait for Sanvu's recurvature and phasing with a mid latitude trough and extratropical transition to complete and monitor trends in the speed, amplitude, and direction of the Rossby Wave packet that's forecast to reach North America by late next week... Model skill in these types of situations is often lower than normal so extreme caution should be urged when interpreting z500 pattern details more than 4-5 days out near eastern North America
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metwannabe said:
On the current NHC track Irma will pass real close if not through Herbert Box 1, anyone in Florida I bet can tell you a thing or two about that.... paging Phil.
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I'm here and not excited about prospects, however they unfold ... :(

Edit - I am not in south FL (thank the Good Lord); but anywhere is no good when a 'Cane is involved.

Here's a synopsis on the Herbert Box, btw:

1. North Carolina has as much of a chance to get hit as Florida.
2. 20.58% or most go out to sea without hitting land.
3. Only 8.82% make it into the Gulf of Mexico when they pass through the box as a hurricane.
4. Puerto Rico will get hit 20.58% of the time (the highest outside of n Antilles).
 
Irma has become more ragged looking this morning, we've lost the eye on satellite and the CDO has become less symmetric, if organization doesn't improve between now and 11am I could see the NHC bumping its intensity down a tad.
 
pcbjr said:
I'm here and not excited about prospects, however they unfold ... :(

Edit - I am not in south FL (thank the Good Lord); but anywhere is no good when a 'Cane is involved.

Here's a synopsis on the Herbert Box, btw:

1. North Carolina has as much of a chance to get hit as Florida.
2. 20.58% or most go out to sea without hitting land.
3. Only 8.82% make it into the Gulf of Mexico when they pass through the box as a hurricane.
4. Puerto Rico will get hit 20.58% of the time (the highest outside of n Antilles).
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Good stuff and the GFS actually just misses it and Euro is in the NE section of it.....
Btw NC sits out like a sore thumb so yeah we rate right up there with Florida of being in the way of TC's
 
Webberweather53 said:
Irma has become more ragged looking this morning, we've lost the eye on satellite and the CDO has become less symmetric, if organization doesn't improve between now and 11am I could see the NHC bumping its intensity down a tad.
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Per Dvorak estimates, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a downgrade at 11. However, it looks like the strength per the same estimates have stopped weakening, so it should ramp back up into a major hurricane by tomorrow or tonight, unless weakening continues.
11LP.GIF
 
Webberweather53 said:
Irma has become more ragged looking this morning, we've lost the eye on satellite and the CDO has become less symmetric, if organization doesn't improve between now and 11am I could see the NHC bumping its intensity down a tad.
Click to expand...
Could be letting it take the SW jog or keep it from curving North? The slight weakening?
 
Storm5 said:
Another look at the 00z EPS . The mean shifted a little NE bjt the spread expanded lol. Clearly two camps, a US hit and offshore/OTS
081fcc19c099d119395b667201d56161.jpg

4a9c1f4c175f9c03817e2ef8c429e404.jpg



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Click to expand...

OTS is my guess but we'll see.


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Tarheel1 said:
Could be letting it take the SW jog or keep it from curving North? The slight weakening?
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The weakening won't hinder that, while the deeper layer steering in this case is actually more southwesterly as compared with the low level steering flow from the subtropical high, Irma will still be strong enough to feel the impact of the Potential Vorticity Streamer to its northeast. The stronger Irma becomes the slower it's forward movement will become and the longer it will be influenced by this PVS although as it intensifies it will throw more heat into this upper level trough and thus act to weaken it. By Tuesday Irma should be far enough removed from this PVS to allow deep layer ridge to its north to dominate the large scale steering pattern.
 
One thing that sticks out in my mind is our woe in Winter, the models love to over pump the PNA Ridge and over deepen the eastern trough. It's pretty much a given that both of these features are over done.

That said if they end up right, I'm suing for all the emotional distress they have caused in winter.
 
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