Cary_Snow95
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Could be wrong but I expect a MA LF landfall
Brent
Member
CMC gonna hit Florida barring a drastic turn
Very close to the Euro, into S FL
Very close to the Euro, into S FL
Cary_Snow95
Member
Outer Banks looks to get hammered this run
Brent
Member
GFS about to wreck Chesapeake Bay just barely east of the OBX
WeatherWatch
Member
Animation over the past 6 runs via GFS. The 0z run from today is about 2 deg south vs it's 18z run
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Cary_Snow95
Member
Brent
Member
The GFS is trending towards the Euro
Color me shocked at this turn of events
Color me shocked at this turn of events
Brent
Member
Right over Virginia Beach at 234 hours 930 mb
We have agreement on all 3 globals of a US landfall on September 10th
We have agreement on all 3 globals of a US landfall on September 10th
The GFS is trending towards the Euro
Color me shocked at this turn of events
Slowly, but surely most of us or all of us knew/suspected it was likely coming. This just reminds me that we have more wild model craziness to come.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Brent
Member
Jose barely misses the same areas a week later, although its much weaker
Brent
Member
I think the OTS chances are really decreasing now
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Irma appears to be becoming increasingly annular. Starting to notice a lot of the banding adjacent to the CDO is disappearing and its becoming very CDO dominant. The background environment where Irma is embedded within is conducive to the formation of annular hurricanes, with light upper level easterly shear, marginal SSTs (& a weak gradient in SSTs along its immediate path, and Irma already underwent an eyewall replacement cycle. The importance of Irma becoming annular (if it does so) is that it becomes less susceptible to large intensity fluctuations and can maintain itself w/o an EWRC for a considerable amount of time while being more capable of fending off upper level wind shear, dry air, etc.
The HWRF even at 24 hours shows an absolutely classic annular hurricane (although the eye may still be smaller than your stereotypical annular by then)
The HWRF even at 24 hours shows an absolutely classic annular hurricane (although the eye may still be smaller than your stereotypical annular by then)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You can see especially near the end of these frames, Irma has lost a lot of outer banding. Definitely a classic vortcane atm.
You can see especially near the end of these frames, Irma has lost a lot of outer banding. Definitely a classic vortcane atm.
Reminds me of Emily in 2005 after it passed through the virgin islands.
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This basically means no strong intensification but no weakening for a while correct? Until it hits the warmer waters..?
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