Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Could be wrong but I expect a MA LF landfall

 

[Brent]

CMC gonna hit Florida barring a drastic turn

Very close to the Euro, into S FL

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Outer Banks looks to get hammered this run

 

[Brent]

GFS about to wreck Chesapeake Bay just barely east of the OBX

 

[WeatherWatch]

Animation over the past 6 runs via GFS. The 0z run from today is about 2 deg south vs it's 18z run

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Brent]

The GFS is trending towards the Euro

Color me shocked at this turn of events

 

[Brent]

Right over Virginia Beach at 234 hours 930 mb

We have agreement on all 3 globals of a US landfall on September 10th

 

[Weatherlover92]

The GFS is trending towards the Euro

Color me shocked at this turn of events

Slowly, but surely most of us or all of us knew/suspected it was likely coming. This just reminds me that we have more wild model craziness to come.

 

[NCSNOW]

A Bastardi Backyard Buzzsaw speacil on the 0z gfs. He'll be in rare form tommorrow talking Carol , Edna history etc.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[$alt]

Well. This isn't good.

 

[Brent]

Jose barely misses the same areas a week later, although its much weaker

 

[$alt]

^^ To go with that image above. Eastville only has a population of 168 as of 2016.
Here's a photo that Google showed. I hope they have the news or something. Just in case.

 

[Brent]

I think the OTS chances are really decreasing now

 

[Webberweather53]

Irma appears to be becoming increasingly annular. Starting to notice a lot of the banding adjacent to the CDO is disappearing and its becoming very CDO dominant. The background environment where Irma is embedded within is conducive to the formation of annular hurricanes, with light upper level easterly shear, marginal SSTs (& a weak gradient in SSTs along its immediate path, and Irma already underwent an eyewall replacement cycle. The importance of Irma becoming annular (if it does so) is that it becomes less susceptible to large intensity fluctuations and can maintain itself w/o an EWRC for a considerable amount of time while being more capable of fending off upper level wind shear, dry air, etc.

The HWRF even at 24 hours shows an absolutely classic annular hurricane (although the eye may still be smaller than your stereotypical annular by then)

 

[Webberweather53]

You can see especially near the end of these frames, Irma has lost a lot of outer banding. Definitely a classic vortcane atm.

 

[Arcc]

You can see especially near the end of these frames, Irma has lost a lot of outer banding. Definitely a classic vortcane atm.

Reminds me of Emily in 2005 after it passed through the virgin islands.

 

[$alt]

You can see especially near the end of these frames, Irma has lost a lot of outer banding. Definitely a classic vortcane atm.

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This basically means no strong intensification but no weakening for a while correct? Until it hits the warmer waters..?