Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[Brent]

 

[Tarheel1]

Wow!

 

[ForsythSnow]

Wow!

If you look at the highest member, it peaks at around 175 knots, or about 200 mph. That is very unlikely, but the fact members are showing a cat 5 in its lifetime is concerning. Let's just hope it doesn't hit any land as one.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Looks like this cycle of RI has stopped. Irma should maintain its strength for probably the next day or two and not strengthen much, or weaken, but if RI kicks up again, we will probably see a very strong major hurricane. If you follow the NHC forecast, I think the strength may be close to what is being predicted, but maybe sooner. Just have to watch as it grows into a larger system. Larger systems mean longer growth times and longer periods between cycles, at least that is what I think.

 

[Arcc]

Looks like this cycle of RI has stopped. Irma should maintain its strength for probably the next day or two and not strengthen much, or weaken, but if RI kicks up again, we will probably see a very strong major hurricane. If you follow the NHC forecast, I think the strength may be close to what is being predicted, but maybe sooner. Just have to watch as it grows into a larger system. Larger systems mean longer growth times and longer periods between cycles, at least that is what I think.

That is the big take away from me, this has a chance to get very large.

 

[Tarheel1]

That is the big take away from me, this has a chance to get very large.

It looks very tiny at the moment, and looks a little less well organized. Probably just temporary or an eyewall replacement cycle, but interested to see how it looks in the morning!

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Those are some Major Carolinas Hitter!! Stay Tuned Folks!

 

[Storm5]

I your a guest sign up. We have some exciting things coming just for members eyes in regards to hurricane irma. Dont miss out . Gonna be busy over the next 10 days

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[WeatherWatch]

I made this graphic of the possible track of Irma. This is not a forecast, just an idea. My timing is based from the NHC. I'm confident enough to say that Irma has a higher chance at effecting land vs staying out open water. Irma will start gaining latitude as it approaches the islands and on forward.

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[Brent]

 

[accu35]

Holy ... but at least the gulf is out of play ... for now ...

Yeah for that model

 

[Brent]

GFS Is about 2 degrees SW of the 18z at 138 hours

 

[Webberweather53]

GFS Is about 2 degrees SW of the 18z at 138 hours

Yeah there's a good reason the NHC decided to disregard its further NE solutions and stay on the southwestern side of the NWP envelope... It's one of the few things you can almost always hang your hat on in the eastern Atlantic, the GFS will end up recurving a TC too quickly OTS

 

[Cary_Snow95]

The gfs has consistently pumped the ridge since last night's runs. So far at hour 150 it looks like a ULL is about to form from the trough. Seems to be another big jog towards euro

 

[Brent]

"Jose" is much weaker almost non-existent so far this run behind it(last run already had a hurricane by now)

 

[Cary_Snow95]

It's quite amusing how the gfs drastically changes the 500 mb pattern each run. The euro has seemed to really be consistent

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Brent]

lol and there's Jose

But seriously the GFS is so erratic

 

[Brent]

GFS way south at 186 hours, trough is weaker and more ridging 920 mb

 

[Cary_Snow95]

CMC has a much more euro like solution but it's pressure is completely inaccurate