Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[pcbjr]

Don't miss the Irma live show Monday night 8 pm

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Eastern or Central?

 

[Storm5]

Eastern or Central?

8 central

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[RBR71]

Don't miss the Irma live show Monday night 8 pm

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Central time? So 9 eastern.... man that's late for this old man Lol

 

[Storm5]

Central time? So 9 eastern.... man that's late for this old man Lol

You don't want to miss this one

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[ForsythSnow]

The trough seems to be already being pushed north at 132. This run is not looking good so far.

 

[RBR71]

You don't want to miss this one

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Oh yeah that's right I'm the special guest..... oops did I let the cat out of the bag?? Lol

 

[Storm5]

Oh yeah that's right I'm the special guest..... oops did I let the cat out of the bag?? Lol

Haha yeah we will be talking about nursing homes and early bed times

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[ForsythSnow]

The trough seems to be a bit more east this run, sonit may actually go OTS.

 

[Storm5]

Another gfs run offshore of the SE coast

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[RBR71]

The trough seems to be a bit more east this run, sonit may actually go OTS.

Yep I think this run will be ots... the trough is deep

 

[RBR71]

Yeah ok GFS..... jeez

 

[RBR71]

Crap may not be completely ots, the trough lifts quick and the ridge builds quick.... NE maybe, I'm gonna stop with the early calls

 

[accu35]

NC sticks out like a sore thumb

 

[ForsythSnow]

Crap may not be completely ots, the trough lifts quick and the ridge builds quick.... NE maybe, I'm gonna stop with the early calls

Lol. I think it's going to be another NYC run. I bet the hype train is going to leave soon for some again...

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

This is some kind of monster on the models...really hope it ends up not affecting anyone.

 

[accu35]

Really all depends how far south Irma will go. If the trough is a quick mover and Irma to far south??

 

[Storm5]

NJ bound this run

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[GeorgiaGirl]

Nope looks like a MA landfall and the NC Outer Banks get affected in this run.

 

[Storm5]

Eastern NC hit on the CMC

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[RBR71]

Not gonna end well.... this is all about timing. Plus the strength of that trough which I fear will verify weaker than models depict.

 

[RBR71]

Delmarva Peninsula on the GFS....

 

[accu35]

Not gonna end well.... this is all about timing. Plus the strength of that trough which I fear will verify weaker than models depict.

Agreed

 

[accu35]

well inland

 

[WeatherWatch]

I'm starting to feel confindent that Irma will be an EC screamer from the SE to the NE. Hate to say, but it's going to be a disaster the way it's looking like.

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[RBR71]

I'm starting to feel confindent that Irma will be an EC screamer from the SE to the NE. Hate to say, but it's going to be a disaster the way it's looking like.

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Too early for that....

 

[Storm5]

Too early for that....

Agree WAY too early for that kind of talk

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[accu35]

Way to early to determine where Irma is going. WSW motion hasn't really happen in full yet and is not completed. That will determine if Irma will feel the effects from the trough. If it were a straight west motion it would different.

 

[NCSNOW]

Cane status over the great lakes

 

[accu35]

Im leaning more towards the euro, sad to say, because each run from the gfs is little more west with the front moving out faster. Plus the euro has the same placement with Irma close to islands. Just saying..

 

[whatalife]

I'm starting to feel confindent that Irma will be an EC screamer from the SE to the NE. Hate to say, but it's going to be a disaster the way it's looking like.

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A little early for a comment like that.


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[RollTide18]

Is the possibility of this storm going in the Gulf still alive?

 

[Storm5]

Is the possibility of this storm going in the Gulf still alive?

I'd say less than a 10 percent chance

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[deltadog03]

I always wondered how much this would dive WSW or SW if it all, but it’s trucking it WSW now for sure.

 

[stormcentral]

Good grief...12Z GFS...last nights euro had landfall to. So much is uncertain, but its horrific to think how terrible this would be if these recents runs come to reality.

 

[Storm5]

Still a huge gefs spread but this run favors offshore of the southeast coast

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[SD]

Still a huge gefs spread but this run favors offshore of the southeast coast

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Not really

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[accu35]

Still a huge gefs spread but this run favors offshore of the southeast coast

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Theres your 10% of the gulf LOL!!!

 

[ForsythSnow]

Dvorak values going up again. Back up to a major later today I bet.

 

[Arcc]

Not really

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Don't make him feel bad. He tries...

Is that worthy of my second warning?

In none playing news that is quite a distinct split. Still say based on known model bias, the southern is 75-80% more likely.

 

[RBR71]

Don't make him feel bad. He tries...

Is that worthy of my second warning?

In none playing news that is quite a distinct split.

Nope worthy of removing the first one! Lol
Yeah gefs didn't make me feel better one bit, only 1 misses the US completely, there are a couple in the gulf a small concentration around Fl/Ga/SC, decent concentration around ENC/MA and another concentration in the NE