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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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The gfs is either going to leave it behind or hook it into the NE

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SD said:
The h5 pattern with the cut off is a nod to the euro

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yep the westerlies are usually not deep enough at this time of the year to support a full scale trough like that for long, if it digs too deep, a cut-off is bound to show up. Still a ways to go however...
 
" I am inclined to stay on the
southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent
forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest
members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the
consensus, giving some confidence in that approach."
From Eric Blake regarding their forecast philosophy to stay on the southwestern edge of the NWP guidance envelope...
 
Webberweather53 said:
yep the westerlies are usually not deep enough at this time of the year to support a full scale trough like that for long, if it digs too deep, a cut-off is bound to show up. Still a ways to go however...
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Webb - That is soooo true, and so well said ... ;)
 
ForsythSnow said:
If this doesn't start curving soon, here comes your rain SD.:confused:
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Nah it's going to get channeled between the atlantic ridge and cutoff looks like a NE hit. I can't see the trough missing it and nothing to bring it west

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Guys (and ladies) the track of Irma will be off after at least day 3 or 4. Typhoon Sanvu will influence the track of Irma and we won't start to see the effects of that till typhoon Sanvu completes it's recurvature which should occur within 3-4 days. Things going on downstream effects what's going on upstream. As Webber said, it's known as the "Rossby Wave Train".

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Webberweather53 said:
yep the westerlies are usually not deep enough at this time of the year to support a full scale trough like that for long, if it digs too deep, a cut-off is bound to show up. Still a ways to go however...
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Agreed. The weakening of the western ridge, retreating of the jet to the US/Can border, cutoff low and potential westward expanding atlantic ridge opens the door for a US hit

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Bye bye Boston. :eek:
gfs_mslp_wind_neus_39.png
 
SD said:
Nah it's going to get channeled between the atlantic ridge and cutoff looks like a NE hit. I can't see the trough missing it and nothing to bring it west

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Congrats Delmarva!
 
That run had all the crazies. Big PRE in the NE, ET transition and expanding wind field

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