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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Storm5 said:
No track is likely or unlikely at this point . We dont even know how strong the trough will be , the ridge placement in the Atlantic ( see the gfs and euro , worlds apart)

Gonna be days before we can rule out track directions

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True dat. We should know if it's OTS by the weekend.


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Storm5 said:
That eps run was a NE shift . Remember the gefs favors OTS at the moment . So out to sea or staying just offshore has just as much a chance as a hit at the moment

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We have 5, 7, 10 or so days to go and likely it will change somewhat again and again (that is not a revelation from God, but just a Fla boy's observational history); if you want to keep up with official track changes over time, use this (also located in Wiki) -
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

Also, on a somewhat unrelated point, but still germane, here's another from Wiki with a plethora of info at your fingertips -
http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
 
pcbjr said:
We have 5, 7, 10 or so days to go and likely it will change somewhat again and again (that is not a revelation from God, but just a Fla boy's observational history)
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The earliest US hit date shown on the 12Z EPS is a week from Sat, or 9 days away. So, indeed, the runs will likely jump around a bit for the next few days.
 
GaWx said:
The earliest US hit date shown on the 12Z EPS is a week from Sat, or 9 days away. So, indeed, the runs will likely jump around a bit for the next few days.
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Yep. Still a long way to go on this one. It will be all over the place for the time being.
 
Oh man. 140 mph at the end now...

INIT 31/2100Z 17.3N 34.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.3N 40.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.9N 42.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 16.8N 47.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 52.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 16.5N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
 
Just for observational purposes, I have put the GFS ENS track of Irma over the Euro ENS. You can see where the difference starts occuring. (Hopefully I overlaid the GFS correctly, you get the idea)
f545d4d8e1afe6db9ef8dc3e658449fa.jpg


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ForsythSnow said:
Oh man. 140 mph at the end now...

INIT 31/2100Z 17.3N 34.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.3N 40.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.9N 42.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 16.8N 47.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 52.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 16.5N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
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How does one say "Oh S..." without getting properly banned ... :confused:
 
WeatherWatch said:
Just for observational purposes, I have put the GFS ENS track of Irma over the Euro ENS. You can see where the difference starts occuring. (Hopefully I overlaid the GFS correctly, you get the idea)
f545d4d8e1afe6db9ef8dc3e658449fa.jpg


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Except that map seems quite deceiving due to scale. I think stacking the two would have been a better comparison.
 
Agree with the long range comments, way too far that's why I say take it about 3-5 days at a time.... models diverge so much early on that by the weekend we will know if the islands are in line or will be spared which will tell us a lot about the days beyond that.
 
And per usual NHC going with the Euro, reading this is concerning..
I am inclined to stay on the
southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent
forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest
members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the
consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.

203906_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
If Euro is right **if** that trof would lead this to a central or east gom hit.
 
metwannabe said:
And per usual NHC going with the Euro, reading this is concerning..
I am inclined to stay on the
southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent
forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest
members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the
consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.

203906_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
Click to expand...
They are the pros but again just because a few of the strongest members agree with the op , i dont get how they lean that direction at the moment

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Shawn said:
I am with the NHC forecaster / Euro / EPS idea. At least this far out in regards to handling 500mb.
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But they are putting the eggs in a basket of a few southern ensemble members . I dont get how a few members gives weight to the euro ops idea when 60 percent of the ensembles are NW of the OP

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Storm5 said:
They are the pros but again just because a few of the strongest members agree with the op , i dont get how they lean that direction at the moment

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Maybe they're going with the Euro cause of it's consistency as well, along with it's better 500mb handling.

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