• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

Status
Not open for further replies.
What on earth
received_1513020628781255.png
 
Brent said:
What on earth
received_1513020628781255.png
Click to expand...
Either the GRADS (model plot program) got wonked out or, the ensembles are all very much in agreement with a very strong system. I'll go with the later.

In fact, I'll ask Ryan and see.
 
Shawn said:
Either the GRADS (model plot program) got wonked out or, the ensembles are all very much in agreement with a very strong system. I'll go with the later.

In fact, I'll ask Ryan and see.
Click to expand...

The gfs ensembles were very bad for florida as ominous as I've ever seen
 
Brent said:
The gfs ensembles were very bad for florida as ominous as I've ever seen
Click to expand...
If they're in that kind of agreement to generate an overlapping map like that in regards to position and strength, we have a big problem. Hopefully we'll have an answer soon.
 
Well. It's not a plotting error. Here is what the spaghetti plot shows at the same time:
gefs_slp_mems_east_33.png
 
Last edited:
Brent said:
The gfs ensembles were very bad for florida as ominous as I've ever seen
Click to expand...
In all seriousness, and not rhetorical, more ominous than Andrew, Charlie, Frances and/or Jeanne (just to name a few recent ones)?
 
Brent said:
So the hmon went all in :eek: yes that is 175 kt or about 200 mph at 850 mb
received_1513080318775286.png
Click to expand...
It did well with Harvey's strength, I believe? It was showing crazy strengthening for Harvey and most ignored it.
 
pcbjr said:
In all seriousness, and not rhetorical, more ominous than Andrew, Charlie, Frances and/or Jeanne (just to name a few recent ones)?
Click to expand...

If they are correct a very large version of Andrew/Charley, both were small

Fortunately its 8 days out
 
Brent said:
If they are correct a very large version of Andrew/Charley, both were small

Fortunately its 8 days out
Click to expand...
With you on the 8 days ...
I'm just not getting the FL connection (and believe me, I'm looking) ... :(
 
Last edited:
Brent said:
This florida connection the ensembles never look like this
received_10155569050180930.png
Click to expand...
Thanks, Brent (I think) ... :confused:

and in the meantime, like we need it, N FL is rockin' https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1138 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017
Alachua FL-
1138 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a
* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Central Alachua County in northern Florida...
* Until 245 AM EDT
* At 1137 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
the advisory area. Up to one inch of rain has already fallen with
an additional 1 to 2 inches likely.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Gainesville, University Of Florida and Gainesville Airport.
 
Last edited:
Shawn said:
Well. It's not a plotting error. Here is what the spaghetti plot shows at the same time:
gefs_slp_mems_east_33.png
Click to expand...

I know I've said it several times but the size boggles my mind. Some of those have pressure sub-940 for a hundred miles. The area the winds would cause damage even inland would be incredible.
 
Arcc said:
I know I've said it several times but the size boggles my mind. Some of those have pressure sub-940 for a hundred miles. The area the winds would cause damage even inland would be incredible.
Click to expand...

yeah, I've never seen anything like that before on the models and certainly not close to the US.:eek:
 
Did some quick research on when the last time FL, GA, SC and NC was effected by a Cat. 4 and 5 hurricanes.
In FL, the last cat. 4 was hurricane Charley from Aug. 13th, 2004. The last cat. 5 was hurricane Andrew on Aug. 24th, 1992.
Georgia's last major hurricane was an unnamed storm on Oct. 4th, 1898 that was a cat. 4.
NC & SC last major hurricane was, Hazel on Oct. 15th, 1954 as a cat 4.

As you can see, it's been awhile since these states have seen a powerful hurricane. The time may have come around, that it's time for another power hurricane to make it's round, and Irma may be added to the list. So, since it's been awhile, people should not be surprised by what the models have been showing for Irma.
 
WeatherWatch said:
Did some quick research on when the last time FL, GA, SC and NC was effected by a Cat. 4 and 5 hurricanes.
In FL, the last cat. 4 was hurricane Charley from Aug. 13th, 2004. The last cat. 5 was hurricane Andrew on Aug. 24th, 1992.
Georgia's last major hurricane was an unnamed storm on Oct. 4th, 1898 that was a cat. 4.
NC & SC last major hurricane was, Hazel on Oct. 15th, 1954 as a cat 4.

As you can see, it's been awhile since these states have seen a powerful hurricane. The time may have come around, that it's time for another power hurricane to make it's round, and Irma may be added to the list. So, since it's been awhile, people should not be surprised by what the models have been showing for Irma.
Click to expand...
I think you are forgetting Hugo for SC. That was much more recent than 1950. It has been a while for GA though.
 
Moving north now no doubt this run stays offshore of the carolinas

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
May head for the NYC area again? I don't like the looks of this, definitely not moving any sort of east at 186
 
I still think that the GFS is 2-3 deg. too far north with Irma. It looks like the ULL is going to fish in Irma over the NE, or even soon as the Mid-Atlantic states from this run.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top