Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[Brent]

GFS looks headed for the area Sandy hit

 

[Weatherlover92]

Looks like it's heading towards a strike on NJ instead of the NYC metro area at hr 198

 

[Brent]

DE/NJ 925 mb!!!!

RIP Jersey shore... again

 

[Tarheel1]

Ensembles should be fun!

 

[Weatherlover92]

Delmarva region on north into PA/NY is getting wrecked on this run.

 

[Storm5]

00z cmc hooks hard right

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[Brent]

Yeah no please get another solution gfs I go back to NYC in 5 months

 

[Storm5]

I like the trend of a faster system getting turned to the north missing the SE . Last thing the mathew landfall areas need is another big storm

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[Brent]

945 mb near Philadelphia!!!

These runs are whacked

 

[WeatherWatch]

Jesus, if that was right from the 0z GFS. Area's along the Chesapeake bay and the Delaware bay would be underwater. Heck, entire Delaware would be pretty much underwater. YIKES!

 

[Shawn]

Hm. Two OP runs in a row with a major NE hit. Last GEFS with a big cluster around the SE. Interesting.

 

[WeatherWatch]

Hm. Two OP runs in a row with a major NE hit. Last GEFS with a big cluster around the SE. Interesting.

Who knows, Irma may just end up being an EC screamer, from the SE to the NE.

 

[deltadog03]

On the road, stopped right now lol, I see gfs still east but definitely west than before. Interesting euro run upcoming tonight. If that upper low is over the SE it will protect us. If it's back over the MS valley we have big problems imho

 

[Brent]

GFS ensembles so far

 

[Brent]

not a single GFS ensemble appears to be OTS

 

[Shawn]

I have thrown together an Irma site with various maps, satellite, intensity forecasts in one place that is mobile/device friendly.
Let me know if you have suggestions or additions I should put on there.

http://southernwx.com/irma/

 

[Brent]

Euro almost wrecks the NE Caribbean Wednesday this run, looks south to me

 

[Brent]

Euro gonna be scary close to Florida if this run continues, its south of the last run

Trough is going away

 

[deltadog03]

Euro almost wrecks the NE Caribbean Wednesday this run, looks south to me

Looks south so far?

 

[Brent]

Looks south so far?

this run may hit Florida outright, its south and the trough is lifting out

 

[Shawn]

Looks south so far?

Little bit faster and further SW compared to 12z so far.

 

[Brent]

 

[Shawn]

Now it's a matter of where it hits. Definitely going to hit the SE this run.

 

[accu35]

Hello Euro

 

[accu35]

 

[Brent]

Bahamas getting wrecked at 168... heading for Florida

 

[Brent]

looking at the ridging the Gulf could be back in play

 

[Brent]

could be a Category 5 headed for SE FL at 192... this run is a nightmare

 

[Shawn]

Oh man. 921 MB approaching Southern FL.

 

[Shawn]

Nothing to direct it. No troughs, no cutoffs, nothing but ridging forcing it into FL, possible over into the Gulf

 

[Brent]

this is going to the Gulf absolutely awful run

 

[accu35]

 

[accu35]

921 mb, GO AWAY!!!

 

[Shawn]

Worst case scenario. I'll get the in-between frames soon for pressure.. but this has Cat 5 into FL, into the Gulf as atleast Cat 3 then restrengthen all over it.

 

[Brent]

Andrew strength but much larger disaster run for Miami

 

[Shawn]

Okay looking at better maps, It's coming NW.... this could be bad for FL, GA, SC.

 

[Shawn]

What is causing the strong hook NW on frame 192 & 204?!

 

[Shawn]

What?

 

[Shawn]

 

[Brent]

ok so this is Floyd again cancel the Gulf