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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Ryan Maue has started real time EPS spaghetti modeling for subscribers.

 
Not sure you could thread the needle any better than what the Euro shows.
 
Based on the 12Z EPS mean hours 228+, I'm afraid it is going to show a number of hits on FL, further up the SE US coast, and in the E GOM for a week from SAT night through a week from Tue.

In deference to the Euro, I'm raising the CONUS hit % chance in my mind from 15% to 25%.

***Edit: a week from Sat night through Tue.
 
EPS certainly has some ots solutions but most are a legitimate US threat but overall little more north than the Op run
 
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Yeah with the massive trough taking a huge bite out of the ridge a gulf track seems unlikely.


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That eps run was a NE shift . Remember the gefs favors OTS at the moment . So out to sea or staying just offshore has just as much a chance as a hit at the moment

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BHS1975 said:
Yeah with the massive trough taking a huge bite out of the ridge a gulf track seems unlikely.


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No track is likely or unlikely at this point . We dont even know how strong the trough will be , the ridge placement in the Atlantic ( see the gfs and euro , worlds apart)

Gonna be days before we can rule out track directions

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