• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

Status
Not open for further replies.
922 with sights on part of SC/NC. hm
 
Jeeze. Looks like landfall happening around or slightly south of Myrtle Beach on fast maps.

In between CHS/MYR i think
 
image.png
 
Doesn't really matter exact landfall point though.. the storm is big enough it'd be as bad as Hugo or worse.. Hugo did this same thing hitting JUST north of downtown CHS.
 
Here's a good map of landfall point. I still am a bit confused on what caused the sharp NW turn?

here.png
 
What is causing it to make that sharp turn to the Northwest? I know the CMC showed something pretty similar. Could it be ULL in the Midwest? Looked like all avenues were blocked, and only way it could/should be able to go was west.
 
It looks like the blocking ridge to the north slides east, so Irma grows NW into the weakness. You can see the heights dissipate NW of it. On the 00z Euro Irma follows pretty much the same exact trajectory as the 12z Euro showed, only slightly more west this run.
 
EPS IRMA modeling coming out now, will have soon.. will wait for the frames.

And looks like every single member initialized the storm too weak vs current pressure analysis.
 
Shawn said:
EPS IRMA modeling coming out now, will have soon.. will wait for the frames.

And looks like every single member initialized the storm too weak vs current pressure analysis.
Click to expand...
I think Euro has been doing that every run so far. Initializing it weaker that what is actually happening.
 
I think the saying is, that a stronger storm will turn out to sea/take a more northern path than a weaker one... at least usually. but so far the EPS is tightly clustered. Still waiting on frames that matter for us.
 
I don't know it that rings true or not. But, we definitely DO NOT want another Hugo around these parts! She was heading straight for Florida, and put the brakes on and turned NW. I know we are gonna have fluidity with these runs over next few days. So, just hoping for the best here.
 
Oh boy, there is less spread on this EPS run.. than the previous.. lots of sub 940s starting to show up. Almost to the time-frame.. I'm so tired! lol
 
What's interesting is the NHC has been hugging the south side of the forecast models because of a "stronger" solution on the Euro... so its a little confusing the weaker vs. stronger path thing...
 
Thanks for the pbp. That looks scary. That weakness isn't much either. This could still plow through Florida and ride the spine up or get over eastern gom. Obviously it could brush the east coast and slam the Carolinas. Wouldn't take much to keep this chugging WNW.
 
Brent said:
What's interesting is the NHC has been hugging the south side of the forecast models because of a "stronger" solution on the Euro... so its a little confusing the weaker vs. stronger path thing...
Click to expand...
I thought they were speaking about the ridge being stronger not so much the storm? Which would make sense because of the Euro's track record at H5 / consistency keeping that ridge strong.
 
That weakness looks rather anemic. Is there no trof on this run over the SE like before at H5?
 
deltadog03 said:
That weakness looks rather anemic. Is there no trof on this run over the SE like before at H5?
Click to expand...
The trough gets out of dodge well before it could do anything to influence Irma vs previous runs.m No cutoff or anything left. Scoots right out.
 
Shawn said:
I thought they were speaking about the ridge being stronger not so much the storm? Which would make sense because of the Euro's track record at H5 / consistency keeping that ridge strong.
Click to expand...

well at least yesterday they were saying the two were related... stronger ridge and stronger hurricane on the Euro vs. weaker on both on the GFS

and yeah that trough sure goes poof, that seems to be a trend that it goes away sooner. I'm still confused how it turns north before FL though, I mean I see the heights falling but it's not that impressive. If this is like Floyd which it pretty much is on the Euro well Floyd did that turn north with an obvious trough which this doesn't have
 
I can see why, the models have continued to shift more south and westward. I believe the GFS is falling in line with the Euro as well. Each run is moving it closer to what the Euro is depicting thus far. Still have a few more days to get a true sense of where things stand though. That last second NW turn is bugging heck out of me. I still don't see anything that would cause it to just up and turn to the NW like that.
 
While we wait for frames that matter to us... here so far:

 
We aren't going to learn much from this.. as it severely diverges after day 7, as expected.. but the cluster within day 7 shows we aren't far from being able to figure something by Monday night or so.

eps_cyclone_atlantic_41.png


Edit: I can say vs 12z EPS, it's closer to the coast
 
Man, those are very narrowly clustered together now. Track cone is really shrinking there. I think consensus thus far is building to make this a SE landfall. Wouldn't climo suggest, based on what we see now, this would be more of a S. FLA. or C. FLA. hit?
 
DLI4SCwx said:
Man, those are very narrowly clustered together now. Track cone is really shrinking there. I think consensus thus far is building to make this a SE landfall. Wouldn't climo suggest, based on what we see now, this would be more of a S. FL. hit?
Click to expand...
With a trough involved, a typhoon greatly affecting h5 who knows. This last euro run literally sent the trough out so fast.. that it was never a chance for the storm to be affected by it. Previous runs had a cutoff low in the South. It's very back and forth and very hard to forecast.

I think with that EPS we can likely assume the Northern Leewards need to go ahead and prepare in case.
 
With that euro op run tonight **if** right, who knows. But I'm skeptical of a sharp turn NW then N that quick. The weakness is pretty much non existent
 
Brent said:
Interesting they all go north and none go to the Gulf
Click to expand...

Hopefully Webber can enlighten us with more detail tomorrow. I should have added to my previous post that things are looking scarier per 00z EPS for the OBX areas... still a ways to go though. I think just in case i'll order some batteries and a radio tomorrow. Been needing them anyway.. and while the latest 00z solution isn't any more likely than the GFS out to sea solution, better to have and not need!
 
Shawn said:
Hopefully Webber can enlighten us with more detail tomorrow. I should have added to my previous post that things are looking scarier per 00z EPS for the OBX areas... still a ways to go though. I think just in case i'll order some batteries and a radio tomorrow. Been needing them anyway.. and while the latest 00z solution isn't any more likely than the GFS out to sea solution, better to have and not need!
Click to expand...

The GFS was not OTS, it barely missed the OBX and hit MD/DE/NJ
 
Shawn said:
With a trough involved, a typhoon greatly affecting h5 who knows. This last euro run literally sent the trough out so fast.. that it was never a chance for the storm to be affected by it. Previous runs had a cutoff low in the South. It's very back and forth and very hard to forecast.

I think with that EPS we can likely assume the Northern Leewards need to go ahead and prepare in case.
Click to expand...
Yep, that was close for those folks in the N. Leewards. Very curious to see how the future model runs keep responding to that last minute change of direction to the NW. Also, if the trough keeps eroding as fast as the Euro is depicting .
 
Brent said:
The GFS was not OTS, it barely missed the OBX and hit MD/DE/NJ
Click to expand...

They're all bleeding together in my brain currently. Yeah there were two OP runs in a row that hit up there today. 18 and 00
 
and it shifted west at 0z(from NYC down to MD/DE) so we'll have to see if that trend continues
 
West and further south, i'm betting we see that trend continue on the 06z, and throughout rest of the day.
 
Brent said:
well at least yesterday they were saying the two were related... stronger ridge and stronger hurricane on the Euro vs. weaker on both on the GFS

and yeah that trough sure goes poof, that seems to be a trend that it goes away sooner. I'm still confused how it turns north before FL though, I mean I see the heights falling but it's not that impressive. If this is like Floyd which it pretty much is on the Euro well Floyd did that turn north with an obvious trough which this doesn't have
Click to expand...

Probably what Feed Gossage told me years ago when we were discussing Dean and why it had no chance of moving north. He explained in simple terms that with a very intense hurricane the "hot" outflow can pump a strong Ridge to the cyclones north and thus intensify it.

Using that thinking along with the already trough happy models is why I still think Florida is in the cross hairs.
 
If this was a fish the euro would have sniffed it out by now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top