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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Well, what's happening with Irma is that it's losing coriolis. What's causing that is the upper level high that is pushing off to the east which will eventually steer Irma off to the WSW. Irma may lose it's major hurricane status briefly during the transition from the west track to the WSW track.

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GEFS ; /
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Shawn said:
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This basically means no strong intensification but no weakening for a while correct? Until it hits the warmer waters..?
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Essentially yes, Irma is already near its theoretical maximum potential intensity for a TC in this part of the Atlantic, given the underlying SSTs and if it were to become completely annular, it probably wouldn't fluctuate in intensity much and could strengthen perhaps a tad considering that annular hurricanes are often much closer to MPI (~85% or more) vs a stereotypical hurricane. Once it nears 50W where SSTs and tropical cyclone heat potential increases considerably, I'd expect Irma to begin intensifying in earnest once again, becoming a category 4 or 5 hurricane as it approaches passes just north of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. Eyewall replacement cycles may be increasingly frequent thereafter as well as the environment becomes relatively more moist.
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It's definitely worrisome to see this many EPS members with a category 4-5 hurricane just north of the Greater Antilles in a week or so from now.
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sometimes I really hate how slowly the Euro loads :p

Through 144 its similar then at 168 its north above Hispanola
 
H5 is completely different over the US vs 12z. Either the trough grabs it or the ridge rebuilds and its on the way to Texas,
 
wow this run is much different... may actually recurve?!

192 looks much more like the GFS
 
Brent said:
HWRF is a beast on the Euro's southerly route to hit the Antilles
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That is extremely scary for those people. It'd likely be at least a higher end Category 4 by that point.
 
925 off the SE coast.. looks like Euro may toss it OTS this run.

500MB is much different versus previous Euro runs. Almost too different....
 
Lol euro curveball, where did the cutoff go? The GFS/Euro are much closer now at least...

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Missed the trough, sits as a loaded gun for anyone at 240hr. Could go OTS or the ridge could build and push it west.
 
High res Euro shows 915mb category 5 cane crawling N-NNE as the first s/w leaves and heights build to its north. Wouldn't look much beyond 4-5 days for an accurate z500 forecast evolution for the E US esp given how poorly NWP has been handling the intensity of Sanvu in the western Pacific...
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00z EPS spaghetti still all over the place.. maybe a slight trend to a curve out, but still.. everyone is in play based on it.
 
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