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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Storm5 said:
By the way we are having Warren Madden on the live show soon . He coordinates the hurricane hunters flight plans and schedules . That will be an interesting show for sure

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That guys a pimp!! Is he still on TWC too!?
 
Gonna be lots of offshore members this run of the eps
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GaWx said:
Mack,
What are you babbling about? I thought WM was one of the best OCMs ever at TWC.
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Pimp is good ! I liked him! I know he was great!
 
We've seen the models in winter hold stead fast onto wrong solutions! Lot to work out!
 
I heard that Irma is 1,000 miles in diameter. Even if Irma ends up off shore, the coastal area's will still receive Irma's impacts. That's only if it holds it's wide diameter and if it's just offshore like what we're seeing.

Edit: Irma's influence is 1,000 miles in diameter.

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WeatherWatch said:
I heard that Irma is 1,000 miles in diameter. Even if Irma ends up off shore, the coastal area's will still receive Irma's impacts. That's only if it holds it's wide diameter and if it's just offshore like what we're seeing.

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It's not going to be a 1,000 miles in diameter and maintain tropical characteristics...
 
The anticyclonic wave break over southern Canada looks more impressive this run and the door to the NE closes up a bit vs the last run, but until we get inside day 5-6 the mid latitude longwave pattern is going to be very complex...
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I had been thinking of raising the chance in my mind at a US landfall from 25%, but the 12Z Euro/EPS are telling me to hold on for now.

Another thing to keep in mind is the recent bias of too strong of an eastern ridge and the opposite in the west for the GEFS...perhaps this means higher chance for recurve than what GEFS has been showing??

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/fcst_eval/html/zwk2_bias.html
 
The influence between the ridge and the trough would eventually change the heading. If there wasn't going to be a trough and just the ridge building west, Irma would have a better chance at coming further on shore of the EC or even the GOM.

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WeatherWatch said:
I edited it, Irma's influence is 1000 miles in diameter.

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I wouldn't even say that either... It's influential but exactly to what degree in how you quantify that you didn't specify and you need to realize there are a lot of two way interactions that reverberate throughout the synoptic and planetary scale (for example Sanvu in the western Pacific influencing weather halfway around the globe in just a few days through Rossby wave dispersion) so limiting its influence to 1000 miles is very restrictive
 
Webberweather53 said:
I wouldn't even say that either... It's influential but exactly to what degree in how you quantify that you didn't specify and you need to realize there are a lot of two way interactions that reverberate throughout the synoptic and planetary scale (for example Sanvu in the western Pacific influencing weather halfway around the globe in just a few days through Rossby wave dispersion) so limiting its influence to 1000 miles is very restrictive
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I understand that typhoon Sanvu is influencing the pattern. What I'm saying is Irma, as whole, is influencing within 1000 miles. Not 1000 miles within the pattern.

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Map via Allan Huffman all major 12z models and ens. Lean towards offshore and strangely gom getting some love too....just a little spread
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I hate to suggest it but take middle of the road....

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metwannabe said:
Map via Allan Huffman all major 12z models and ens. Lean towards offshore and strangely gom getting some love too....just a little spread
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Seems the spread is getting worse instead of better. I thought the models did better with tropical systems than winter storm systems aroind here.
 
We're all guilty to some degree about making statements of how a model run will end prior to it's ending, some speculation I think is fine again we all do it to some degree but I think we need to start curbing the statements with such finality and honestly reducing those comments altogether.... just my opinion.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The anticyclonic wave break over southern Canada looks more impressive this run and the door to the NE closes up a bit vs the last run, but until we get inside day 5-6 the mid latitude longwave pattern is going to be very complex...
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Regardless of how this run ends read Eric's comments here and take a moment to watch Levi Cowan's video upper level pattern complex to say the least..... anything possible after 5 days.
 
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