• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

Status
Not open for further replies.
All of this JB talk, whether positive or negative, is likely what he desires. Someone like him wants anything but to be ignored. Negative publicity is better than no publicity in this case. The number of internet based discussions about him over the last 20 years or so has likely far exceeded any other pro met by a wide margin with perhaps deeeeeeeeeteeeeeeeeee in 2nd! I'd say he's likely quite content to say the least.
 
GaWx said:
All of this JB talk, whether positive or negative, is likely what he desires. Someone like him wants anything but to be ignored. Negative publicity is better than no publicity in this case. The number of internet based discussions about him over the last 20 years or so has likely far exceeded any other pro met by a wide margin with perhaps deeeeeeeeeteeeeeeeeee in 2nd! I'd say he's likely quite content to say the least.
Click to expand...
I agree with you larry. First off you are 100 percent correct ANY publicity is good publicity for a business.

Your words about him not wanting to be ignored are spot on !

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
I see chuck5 made a call to the NHC requesting more explanation as to why they decided to stay on the south side of guidance...

An upper-level low will be
dropping southward on the east side of that high, and should be a
key feature to how far south Irma goes before eventually turning
westward and west-northwestward early next week. There is a
noticeable clustering of guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF, HWRF and
corrected-consensus models to the south, and the UKMET, GFS, CTC and
HMON to the north. Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep
cyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from
the upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on
the southern side of the guidance. Thus, the forecast will stay
similar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster
mentioned above.
 
Any ideas on how a slightly weaker system than initially forecasted at this point could affect the path? I would think it could be pulled less north due to weaker intensity at the moment.
 
145645_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
I haven't seen much talk about the UKMET. I just checked the 0z run and the Atlantic ridge is amplified. Between Irma, that possible weak TC disturbance behind Irma and the trough over the east interacts with the ridge. With the setup, the "nose" of the ridge (on the western side) is being pushed off to the west, steering Irma into the Leeward and the most northern Windward islands.
 
Brad Panovich Meteorologist
1 min ·
Please stop sharing these scam posts. Just like those phone calls that prey on older people and family members fears of kidnapped family members, or IRS scams, these are just scams to make money on the fears of people. We don't know where #Irma will go or how strong and won't know for 5-6 more days. Then we have 5-6 more days until it may or may not hit anyone. Stay weather aware but don't be alarmed right now. 85% of storms that form out this far don't hit the U.S.
 
Arcc said:
Did he seriously use MS Paint to do that map?
Click to expand...

Yeah he did lol.
metwannabe said:
I see chuck5 made a call to the NHC requesting more explanation as to why they decided to stay on the south side of guidance...

An upper-level low will be
dropping southward on the east side of that high, and should be a
key feature to how far south Irma goes before eventually turning
westward and west-northwestward early next week. There is a
noticeable clustering of guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF, HWRF and
corrected-consensus models to the south, and the UKMET, GFS, CTC and
HMON to the north. Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep
cyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from
the upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on
the southern side of the guidance. Thus, the forecast will stay
similar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster
mentioned above.
Click to expand...

Yeah this is what I mentioned to Tarheel earlier, this is actually one of those rare cases, wherein the short-medium term, a stronger tropical cyclone will actually travel further south & west than a shallow one because of the PVS to the northeast that's largely responsible for the WSW motion is most prevalent in the upper levels of the troposphere. Thus a robust hurricane with a deeper rossby penetration depth will "feel" this ULL more than a tropical storm or depression.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah he did lol.


Yeah this is what I mentioned to Tarheel earlier, this is actually one of those rare cases, wherein the short-medium term, a stronger tropical cyclone will actually travel further south & west than a shallow one because of the PVS to the northeast that's largely responsible for the WSW motion is most prevalent in the upper levels of the troposphere. Thus a robust hurricane with a deeper rossby penetration depth will "feel" this ULL more than a tropical storm or depression.
Click to expand...
So Met. Eric Blake over at the NHC may be reading your post? Lol.. on a complete side note I graduated HS with a girl by the name of Tammy Rhome, her brother happens to be Jamie Rhome, Storm Surge Specialist at the NHC.... sadly she and I have not kept up through the years stupid me, would be nice to have inside connections like that! Sorry I'll stay on topic
 
Most tropical models favor the GFS track through 132hrs. They either have it passing through, or north of the 20N/60W crosshair. The EURO, CMC, and HWRF pass it several degrees south of 20N at the same time.
 
metwannabe said:
Brad Panovich Meteorologist
1 min ·
Please stop sharing these scam posts. Just like those phone calls that prey on older people and family members fears of kidnapped family members, or IRS scams, these are just scams to make money on the fears of people. We don't know where #Irma will go or how strong and won't know for 5-6 more days. Then we have 5-6 more days until it may or may not hit anyone. Stay weather aware but don't be alarmed right now. 85% of storms that form out this far don't hit the U.S.
Click to expand...

I saw that James Spann addressed that too:

Seeing many bogus FB posts on Hurricane Irma. In fact, what this guy is doing is pretty much a federal crime by taking official National Hurricane Center graphics and then "doctoring them up" for clicks, likes, and shares. NOBODY knows the final destination of Hurricane Irma now, and nobody will know for 4-5 days. Please, think before you share.
 
metwannabe said:
Brad Panovich Meteorologist
1 min ·
Please stop sharing these scam posts. Just like those phone calls that prey on older people and family members fears of kidnapped family members, or IRS scams, these are just scams to make money on the fears of people. We don't know where #Irma will go or how strong and won't know for 5-6 more days. Then we have 5-6 more days until it may or may not hit anyone. Stay weather aware but don't be alarmed right now. 85% of storms that form out this far don't hit the U.S.
Click to expand...

I'm lucky to have him and Jeff Crum as my locals. Both are very accessible on social media and no-BS mets. If I had to deal with the amount of garbage Brad does on facebook I wouldn't have an account...the patience he shows is quite impressive and he really knows his stuff.
 
South AL Wx said:
I saw that James Spann addressed that too:

Seeing many bogus FB posts on Hurricane Irma. In fact, what this guy is doing is pretty much a federal crime by taking official National Hurricane Center graphics and then "doctoring them up" for clicks, likes, and shares. NOBODY knows the final destination of Hurricane Irma now, and nobody will know for 4-5 days. Please, think before you share.
Click to expand...
I even think I saw TWC hyping this up on their broadcast trying to make it look like it will hit Florida. The hype needs to stop. We don't know yet. Give it a week and we will have a better idea.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top