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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Here is 850 mb. WHAT EVEN. 141 knts a the surface, or a Cat 5.
hwrf_mslp_uv850_11L_32.png
 
How do we know the GFS is having issues with Irma's strength with that sub 900mb? It's a model, it could be right or wrong.

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WeatherWatch said:
How do we know the GFS is having issues with Irma's strength with that sub 900mb? It's a model, it could be right or wrong.

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The GFS has convective parameterization issues that allow it to over intensify
Tarheel1 said:
They don't even get that strong very often in the W Pacific or Pacific!
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Yeah, there's usually a ~7-10% reduction in wind speed between the 850 hPa level and the surface but even still you'd still be talking category 5 surface winds in the eyewall verbatim...
 
Storm5 said:
Gifs has a history of over strengthening storms plus all the reasons Eric listed above

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That's true, let me put it this way. How do we know the GFS is having issues with this particular hurricane?

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I don't even really know if those intensities are realistic... but this certainly could be one of the strongest hurricanes ever to threaten the NE Caribbean in any case
 
navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_24.png
People don't ever pay the NAVGEM model any attention but I did doing Harvey and it was correct!! It have trended South a lot with the trough pulling away much faster!!! Look at 500mb, and plus that system around the Bay of Campeche is showing back up!!
 
Just a little side note here peeps..... this site is much different than most and extremely patient, carefree even with post. For the most part.... but if things hold true this place could get crazy busy and serious next week. All I ask is that we don't get to a point where you have to read 2/3 a page before you get to useful info. You know we don't really care about banter but there are times it can get in the way so just use good judgment, read before you post and help us keep it fairly clutter free if/when that time gets here next week. Thanks and carry on!
 
dang if the mean is 926 mb there's gotta be some members sub-900

which would be unprecedented in that area the only sub 900's have been in the Caribbean and Gulf I think Keys 1935 would have done that near the Keys
 
ForsythSnow said:
Reminds me of last night, but a bit north and less agreement. All agree on a landfall though. 926 woulds spell a strong 4 or cat 5.
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Hurricanes that strike the Carolinas perpendicular to the coastline (from the southeast) and/or are captured by an ULL have the capability to be stronger than ones that make broad sweeping turns paralleling the east coast due to their interactions with adjacent mid-latitude troughs (esp wrt southwesterly wind shear in those that parallel the eastern seaboard), lack of time over shelf waters and the relative dearth of dry air that gets absorbed into the circulations as they also tend to minimize the amount of time they remain near the contiguous US.
 
Brent said:
dang if the mean is 926 mb there's gotta be some members sub-900

which would be unprecedented in that area the only sub 900's have been in the Caribbean and Gulf I think Keys 1935 would have done that near the Keys
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It would be unprecedented to get much below 920mb in this area of the Atlantic, although there are likely some underestimates in the HURDAT2 reanalysis particularly w/ storms like the 1932 Bahamas hurricane which may have been in the 910s.
 
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