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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Storm5 said:
This ^^^^ relations would be better , friendships would be better and society would know how to have real conversations

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That's the truth right there brotha!

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The GFS is definitely not trending in the right direction if you want to see Irma avoid the US... It's progressively slowing it down and pushing it further SW with each run... Cave to the Euro.
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12z cmc
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Something to keep in mind, even tho this run may be OTS, if trough pulls out quicker?
 
It's sad that people put out fake/scam outlooks out. It puts a bad look on the weather community. If people keep putting out fake/scam outlooks it makes me think the government will take away the rights from non-meteorologist to have access to any of the weather models. I think they wanted to do that at one point and as a independent forecaster, I do not want that.

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Storm5 said:
Such a compact storm ATM

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Yep, the new eye is likely going to be about 10-15 nautical miles in diameter when it clears out again. The storm will become larger as it ages due to eyewall replacement cycles, entrance into an environment with higher background moisture and SSTs, all of which will likely expand the wind field of the storm...
 
Per the 12Z GFS hour 216, this one looks like it may headed to the NC-NE corridor.
 
12z cmc is moving N/NE off the southeast coast by day ten with an open door to head OTS
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accu35 said:
Something to keep in mind, even tho this run may be OTS, if trough pulls out quicker?
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This run isn't gonna go OTS, the Azores-Bermuda high is bridging over the top with the Rockies ridge that's slid eastward into southern Canada and there's a cut off ULL over the south-central US that will try to capture it. This run will very likely hit the US...
 
Classic US landfalling z500 pattern on this GFS run... Massive burgeoning ridge over southeastern Canada and a relative weakness near the northern Gulf coast with a TC over the SW Atlantic.

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Gfs is moving NE at 228 but with a building high im not sure why its tryimg to go east

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