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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Irma is going to be wide in diameter. So, if Irma is going to hug the coasts, inland of the coastal states will still receive effects from Irma. The spaghetti plots do not represent the size of Irma. Just because the members are mostly over water, does not mean that the coastal area's and inland will not see effects from Irma.

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Webberweather53 said:
Ummm, 186 (215 mph) knot winds at 850mb on the HWRF? Holy crap. Btw, the model shifted nearly a degree south & west this run, really close to the northern Antilles...
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Woah. Wouldn't they be flying around in the storm at that range? If that verifies, there will be some insane flight level winds.
 
12z GFS ENS spaghetti plot
a7f3072c34380b2bc2e95b99797d160f.jpg


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ForsythSnow said:
Woah. Wouldn't they be flying around in the storm at that range? If that verifies, there will be some insane flight level winds.
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Yeah we'll be getting recon data from Irma by 21z tomorrow and subsequently thereafter, and a NOAA G-IV aircraft will be sampling the upper level environment around Irma on Monday. The infusion of this data should improve the initialization & forecasts of the NWP models...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ummm, 186 (215 mph) knot winds at 850mb on the HWRF? Holy crap. Btw, the model shifted nearly a degree south & west this run, really close to the northern Antilles...
View attachment 1025
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That's just a freakin monster.... and the Euro is heading towards the Islands, they may need watches sometime tomorrow if this keeps up
Still going to pass just to the north of the Islands but still close call for them
 
Seems like the trough will pull out quicker this euro run compare to the gfs.
 
So since it’s more south in the early to mid run, then same north at end of run. Do we al have to pray that this trof can capture it?
 
The trough gets hung up more so it looks like this will be a strong recurve, fish or not.
 
its moving almost due north at 192, I think it may go up the coast

this is definitely gonna be closer to recurve though
 
I don't have the good maps but my guess is this is the solution that was talked about earlier as a possibility...no landfall but heads up the EC.

Edit: yup, believe this is the possibility talked about.
 
This is not an analogy, but rather is to humbly point out that an OTS/off-shore modeling does not always work that way - Remember Matthew as recently as last year? Wholly different set up then, but he defied early way off-shore forecasts ... so the Irma pbp is interesting to say the least, but it is not a crystal ball ... there's a lot left to happen before any of us have a real clue ...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al14/loop_5W.shtml
 
pcbjr said:
This is not an analogy, but rather is to humbly point out that an OTS/off-shore modeling does not always work that way - Remember Matthew as recently as last year? Wholly different set up then, but he defied early way off-shore forecasts ... so the Irma pbp is interesting to say the least, but it is not a crystal ball ... there's a lot left to happen before any of us have a real clue ...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al14/loop_5W.shtml
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Let's not forget about Sandy too. That thing was supposed to go OTS but slammed the NE. Also, I'm going to have to say it is too soon to tell where it is going beyond 2 days, or until planes start collecting data. Each run of all the models seem to be changing the 500 mb setup each run, as well as the overall storm speed. You just can't have an idea with Irma for some reason.
 
Yep just another run and another solution.... EPS will probably be south or way out to sea, who knows haha. Interesting that it was more west early but then ots, that trough and the atlantic ridge. Can't help but think about Webb's comments about sanvu and how it was looking like it would have less effect > more ridging. Anyway it's all speculative at this point
 
Here is the flight information that Webber was talking about
bf4f564e3cd80ef4ae5f5b6ebe0cc935.jpg


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By the way we are having Warren Madden on the live show soon . He coordinates the hurricane hunters flight plans and schedules . That will be an interesting show for sure

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Looking at the gefs if you look at the last 5 runs it's like throwing darts . Big shifts in all directions . You know its gonna be a long week when the ensemblesare having big shifts

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Storm5 said:
You can tell early on that it's gonna stay offshore with this look
03b43ff2bbd33634b0375e27ff951cc7.jpg


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If that trough isn't there or the upper low is not there, it's a whole different ball game
 
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