• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

Status
Not open for further replies.
18z GFS track so far is identical to 12z except the trough on 18z is lifting out little quicker and the ridge is holding a tad longer to the north.
 
Still a bit early to call for sure, but I think a US landfall will be further south and west than 12z was. (Maybe closer to VA)
 
I think I'll get my hurricane preps together just in case..... oh boy

gfs_z500aNorm_atl_32.png
 
18z looks to be on track to NC/Chesapeake bay area, one the worst areas for surge. That 874 mb at hour 168 was crazy.
 
The 18z GFS have been trending south with every model run!! Could work it way back down to the SE before everything is said and done with trough moving out quicker!!
 
when is the last GFS run that wasn't absolute doom? It's been awhile

Yesterday it was NYC or the Jersey Shore, today it's Cheaspeake Bay
 
One trend of concern is this turning north but actually the trough lifting out and the ridge bridging over the top and the left hook at landfall....
 
12z had center about 100 miles off Hatteras with lf on Delmarva, 18z about 25 miles off Hatteras and up the Chesapeake Bay... small differences but in the wrong direction!
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Still a bit early to call for sure, but I think a US landfall will be further south and west than 12z was. (Maybe closer to VA)
Click to expand...
Looks like Irma makes the first landfall across the southern tip of Maryland so I wasn't too far off in my prediction. lol
 
metwannabe said:
One trend of concern is this turning north but actually the trough lifting out and the ridge bridging over the top and the left hook at landfall....
Click to expand...
That is what Levi mentioned in his video. Basically if you don't have time to watch it, a short summary is that we don't know what is happening, but the H5 scenarios could be: Trough degrades high, storm goes OTS, The ridge builds to the north and connects to the other ridge and two things could happen (One being the trough gets dissolved and caused the high to the north to build further south and steer the storm into the SE, or the the trough remains and causes a Mid Atlantic, NE landfall, like the GFS. Still too far out, but if you find time to watch it, definitely do.
 
ForsythSnow said:
That is what Levi mentioned in his video. Basically if you don't have time to watch it, a short summary is that we don't know what is happening, but the H5 scenarios could be: Trough degrades high, storm goes OTS, The ridge builds to the north and connects to the other ridge and two things could happen (One being the trough gets dissolved and caused the high to the north to build further south and steer the storm into the SE, or the the trough remains and causes a Mid Atlantic, NE landfall, like the GFS. Still too far out, but if you find time to watch it, definitely do.
Click to expand...
Yes I referenced that a few post back, I watched it and great information.... I'd encourage others to do the same
 
Well, I will say that there has definately been a trend today, but is it the right one? lol who knows. If** the H5 pattern on that look is right, GOM and FL,GA would be out. SC/NC and points NE would have a better shot at a potential landfall. Honestly if that is right, OTS looks VERY possible too.
 
deltadog03 said:
Well, I will say that there has definately been a trend today, but is it the right one? lol who knows. If** the H5 pattern on that look is right, GOM and FL,GA would be out. SC/NC and points NE would have a better shot at a potential landfall. Honestly if that is right, OTS looks VERY possible too.
Click to expand...
Question is , is it a true trend? With the models going back and forth from day to day and the ensembles jumping all over the place its hard to find a true trend.

No doubt it was the trend of the day today though

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
deltadog03 said:
Well, I will say that there has definately been a trend today, but is it the right one? lol who knows. If** the H5 pattern on that look is right, GOM and FL,GA would be out. SC/NC and points NE would have a better shot at a potential landfall. Honestly if that is right, OTS looks VERY possible too.
Click to expand...
I won't quiet call it a trend, I have learned when you are over 5 days out the ensembles are the best things to use but they are confused too!! I think anywhere from Ga up to Ma need to keep an eye out!! With trough moving out quicker and ridge building we here in the SE could be in trouble.
 
I know eps was posted earlier but didn't know if most of you realized weathernerds also post those on their site.... good stuff if you haven't checked out that site.
AL11_2017090212_ECENS_large.png
 
Only true trend I see is the trough lifting out and allowing the ridge to bridge across the NE/Canada..... question is where will Irma be at that point, fast enough to have been turned ots already or slower and left behind to be driven inland. Big question and now back to some football
 
The GFS has convective feedback problems which become exacerbated when it tries to forecast very strong tropical cyclones, it tends to be over zealous w/ intensity so I wouldn't pay any mind to its sub 900mb forecasts because that's almost certainly not happening. Emanuel MPI wouldn't support anything more than 900mb in an absolutely perfect environment, but even still you have to make adjustments for inner core dynamics, climatology of the area, tropopause height, etc... Considering all else equal, even with the warmer climate background I don't see this getting more than 5-10mb outside the observed climatology (which for the Bahamas Gloria (1985) has the lowest pressure on record (as far as I'm aware) @ 920mb. Thus I wouldn't anticipate this getting below 910mb even in the most ideal situation...
atlpot.png
 
metwannabe said:
Only true trend I see is the trough lifting out and allowing the ridge to bridge across the NE/Canada..... question is where will Irma be at that point, fast enough to have been turned ots already or slower and left behind to be driven inland. Big question and now back to some football
Click to expand...
Hope your football is better than mine :mad:; and hope no TC for anyone ... ;)
 
Storm5 said:
Question is , is it a true trend? With the models going back and forth from day to day and the ensembles jumping all over the place its hard to find a true trend.

No doubt it was the trend of the day today though

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Agreed! I don't know what we can super concluded other than its all over the place and new trends daily! lmbo
 
ForsythSnow said:
HWRF coming in more south. Looks like a hit to the Northern Lesser Antilles is becoming more likely as mentioned.
Click to expand...
More South she goes, the harder it is to miss US, even with a North bend or hook! I think this model did well with Harvey!?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top