Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[ForsythSnow]

Here is 850 mb. WHAT EVEN. 141 knts a the surface, or a Cat 5.

 

[Tarheel1]

190 knot (220 mph) winds at 850mb on the HWRF as this nears the Antilles. Uhhhhh
View attachment 1029

May as well set a pressure record and then miss the US!

 

[ForsythSnow]

This doesn't even look natural, so it can't be real, right?

 

[pcbjr]

May as well set a pressure record and then miss the US!

It is all modeling at this point ... Enjoy football tonight; you may not have power next weekend ...
Just sayin'

 

[ForsythSnow]

Oh my. Don't look at the HMON its even worse.

 

[Webberweather53]

May as well set a pressure record and then miss the US!

Make that 195 knot (225 mph) 850 hPa winds...

 

[WeatherWatch]

How do we know the GFS is having issues with Irma's strength with that sub 900mb? It's a model, it could be right or wrong.

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[ForsythSnow]

 

[Storm5]

How do we know the GFS is having issues with Irma's strength with that sub 900mb? It's a model, it could be right or wrong.

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Gifs has a history of over strengthening storms plus all the reasons Eric listed above

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[Tarheel1]

Make that 195 knot (225 mph) 850 hPa winds...

They don't even get that strong very often in the W Pacific or Pacific!

 

[Storm5]

18z gefs

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[Arcc]

That is the first ERC shown on models I believe.

 

[Webberweather53]

How do we know the GFS is having issues with Irma's strength with that sub 900mb? It's a model, it could be right or wrong.

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The GFS has convective parameterization issues that allow it to over intensify

They don't even get that strong very often in the W Pacific or Pacific!

Yeah, there's usually a ~7-10% reduction in wind speed between the 850 hPa level and the surface but even still you'd still be talking category 5 surface winds in the eyewall verbatim...

 

[WeatherWatch]

Gifs has a history of over strengthening storms plus all the reasons Eric listed above

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That's true, let me put it this way. How do we know the GFS is having issues with this particular hurricane?

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[Brent]

I don't even really know if those intensities are realistic... but this certainly could be one of the strongest hurricanes ever to threaten the NE Caribbean in any case

 

[Webberweather53]

Well then...

 

[Meteorologist1999]

People don't ever pay the NAVGEM model any attention but I did doing Harvey and it was correct!! It have trended South a lot with the trough pulling away much faster!!! Look at 500mb, and plus that system around the Bay of Campeche is showing back up!!

 

[Brick Tamland]

This is becoming too close for comfort for NC.

 

[Brick Tamland]

More South she goes, the harder it is to miss US, even with a North bend or hook! I think this model did well with Harvey!?

Oh my. Don't look at the HMON its even worse.

I think they both did well with Harvey. Of course, Harvey only really formed 72 hours before hitting land.

 

[Metwannabe]

Just a little side note here peeps..... this site is much different than most and extremely patient, carefree even with post. For the most part.... but if things hold true this place could get crazy busy and serious next week. All I ask is that we don't get to a point where you have to read 2/3 a page before you get to useful info. You know we don't really care about banter but there are times it can get in the way so just use good judgment, read before you post and help us keep it fairly clutter free if/when that time gets here next week. Thanks and carry on!