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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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ForsythSnow said:
As I said, it looks just like yesterday's run. This was yesterday.
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See you guys in December when my power is back

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Meteorologist1999 said:
What you mean??
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What I'm essentially saying here regarding the GFS Ensemble's under dispersion bias is that they tend to produce solutions that are too similar not only to one another but also the operational model. Not to mention, with a lower number of members (20) than the ECMWF (50+ control), this often means the spread in this ensemble suite is likely too small and therefore is susceptible to more run-to-run variability...
 
Webberweather53 said:
What I'm essentially saying here regarding the GFS Ensemble's under dispersion bias is that they tend to produce solutions that are too similar not only to one another but also the operational model. Not to mention, with a lower number of members (20) than the ECMWF (50+ control), this often means the spread in this ensemble suite is likely too small and therefore is susceptible to more run-to-run variability...
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Are the current GEFS members run on the newest version of the operational GFS? Logic would say so but I vaguely recall there being a lag for past op GFS upgrades.
 
Really starting to worry about this. Seems less likely that it will go out to sea, and a lot of the model tracks having it hitting NC as a major hurricane, and some with a Fran like track.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Really starting to worry about this. Seems less likely that it will go out to sea, and a lot of the model tracks having it hitting NC as a major hurricane, and some with a Fran like track.
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Less likely ?? Way too early for Iikely or less likely track ideas

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Brick Tamland said:
Really starting to worry about this. Seems less likely that it will go out to sea, and a lot of the model tracks having it hitting NC as a major hurricane, and some with a Fran like track.
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It's still 8 days away and the Euro was OTS at 12z...

I'm still giving it another day or two before sounding too many alarms

I will agree there are a lot of reasons to be disturbed but its not like its guaranteed to even remotely verify
 
Storm5 said:
Less likely ?? Way too early for Iikely or less likely track ideas

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Lol. You've use the terminology yourself. In example, "less likely it'll go into the Gulf".
 
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And now I really wish I had gone to the OBX this summer. Now the kids are in school and have flag football games every Saturday until the end of October. Already sad we didn't get to go this summer, and I am going to be really upset if Irma wrecks it.
 
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