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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Looks to be growing in size on satellite too, she's blown up once she got away from that shear to the north
 
Arcc said:
Irma is definitely gaining symmetry and becoming organized. About time for the Cat 5 run.
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Just playing the "supposin'" game here - if she came in to S FL as a 5 and ran the peninsula, and was feeding off of the Atl or Gulf, she'd likely still be a 1 or 2 going into S GA or back into the Atl ...
This is serious stuff, folks ... but still a very long ways out ... so no need to ring any alarm bells at this time ... :confused:
 
I do not like this EURO solution for NC,SC and Va. at all! If the midwest trough shown on the GFS is not there as the EURO shows, and the high is strengthening as forecast, we could have a very very slow moving system or even a stalled one close to the NC/SC border. This would lead to copious rainfall and, unlike Houston, in much higher and more difficult terrain for flooding. Flash flooding would be a major and possibly catastrophic issue for this part of the SE after landfall occurs
 
204223_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Expecting 150 in a day, lasting for 12 hours.

INIT 04/2100Z 16.7N 54.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 16.6N 56.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 61.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 18.7N 64.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 20.4N 69.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 21.6N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
 
pcbjr said:
Just playing the "supposin'" game here - if she came in to S FL as a 5 and ran the peninsula, and was feeding off of the Atl or Gulf, she'd likely still be a 1 or 2 going into S GA or back into the Atl ...
This is serious stuff, folks ... but still a very long ways out ... so no need to ring any alarm bells at this time ... :confused:
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Hard to say, but probably atleast a Cat 2 with the pressure of a mid to strong cat 3.
 
Just looks like thr NHC thinks it's going in the Gulf. It would have to go straight north based on that track once it gets between Cuba and Florida to not get in the Gulf.
 
I keep saying - wait 48 before ringing the bells ...
But Good Lord, FWIW, if anything close to this were to occur, JAX would be a lost city for a while ...

euro-highprob-sep4.png
 
dsaur said:
I've got a torn rotator cuff...can I use my croquet mallet?? I can sure putt better with it, but my drives are kind of short, lol, so it equals out. T
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I wish this was a gigantic snow/ice storm instead of a hurricane. TRUE WEENIE HERE
 
pcbjr said:
Just playing the "supposin'" game here - if she came in to S FL as a 5 and ran the peninsula, and was feeding off of the Atl or Gulf, she'd likely still be a 1 or 2 going into S GA or back into the Atl ...
This is serious stuff, folks ... but still a very long ways out ... so no need to ring any alarm bells at this time ... :confused:
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I've had 100 mph gust from land falls in the pan handle, so even less powerful ones can cause damage here, if they pull roofing tin off your shed and throw it thru your bathroom window :) But it's the tornadoes I don't like...little 0's and 1s can bite real hard, and that year we had three hurricanes come up out of Fla they spun them up like a cotton candy machine. T
 
I'll never forget Hurricane Opal and i'll never forget Jim Cantore saying "Birmingham and Atlanta, this is your storm too". I was just a kid at the time but it was so exciting. We were out of school for at least 3 days.
 
Putting this slap dab right in the middle of the discussion -

Y'all are getting a lot of info and seeming entertainment from this.

How's about taking 30 painless seconds, going up to the top of the page, and Donating $5, or $10?

:cool:
 
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accu35 said:
I wish this was a gigantic snow/ice storm instead of a hurricane. TRUE WEENIE HERE
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Oh, man, I keep holding out hope, and will until it's time for my dirt nap :)
This is a dangerous storm though, and it's track so far says it likes me...not feeling real secure...since it's not very cold :)
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Another Question I have is Once this storm get inland into the Carolinas do it moves quickly out or slow down??
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A couple of Goofy runs had it cutting off in the SE, and the 12z had it doing a dance for the ne..so who knows? They usually like to high tail it out of here, but these ain't normal times when you get something like Harvey. T
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I'll never forget Hurricane Opal and i'll never forget Jim Cantore saying "Birmingham and Atlanta, this is your storm too". I was just a kid at the time but it was so exciting. We were out of school for at least 3 days.
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Was not here but heard Opal did lots of damage to this area.
 
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