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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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All of those tracks would have some US impact.....thank God it's still 8-10 days away, plenty of time for it change
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dang if the mean is 926 mb there's gotta be some members sub-900

which would be unprecedented in that area the only sub 900's have been in the Caribbean and Gulf I think Keys 1935 would have done that near the Keys
 
ForsythSnow said:
Reminds me of last night, but a bit north and less agreement. All agree on a landfall though. 926 woulds spell a strong 4 or cat 5.
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Hurricanes that strike the Carolinas perpendicular to the coastline (from the southeast) and/or are captured by an ULL have the capability to be stronger than ones that make broad sweeping turns paralleling the east coast due to their interactions with adjacent mid-latitude troughs (esp wrt southwesterly wind shear in those that parallel the eastern seaboard), lack of time over shelf waters and the relative dearth of dry air that gets absorbed into the circulations as they also tend to minimize the amount of time they remain near the contiguous US.
 
Brent said:
dang if the mean is 926 mb there's gotta be some members sub-900

which would be unprecedented in that area the only sub 900's have been in the Caribbean and Gulf I think Keys 1935 would have done that near the Keys
Click to expand...

It would be unprecedented to get much below 920mb in this area of the Atlantic, although there are likely some underestimates in the HURDAT2 reanalysis particularly w/ storms like the 1932 Bahamas hurricane which may have been in the 910s.
 
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