How does the 12z UKMet look?
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
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A couple of those solutions looks like it may be possible for Irma to move out to sea ?
Looked like it was a tick north (and I mean very slight) early but makes the turn just a little later, thus an overall w shift
Only 4 miss land....
We would know pretty quick. As I stated above, the ones with that chance move well north way before Florida and seperate themselves from the consensus.
Storm5
Member
00z
12z
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12z
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
NAVGEM = No. Please no.
Storm5
Member
Again the NW track after landfall is supported
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Storm5
Member
Florida and SC the sweet spot on the 12z eps
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Irma's future track looks like a lot of my golf shots today, long but turning right.....
pcbjr
Member
how in the hell can you say "sweet" in this context ... LOL
Again the NW track after landfall is supported
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You know my hitting Cuba, weakening and hitting Tampa joke from a few days ago, really isn't that far fetched now.
Cliftown04
Member
Selfish question here but with that northwest turn after landfall would most of the precip still be on that eastern side? Good discussion folks! Can I rest assured this site can hold up to this heavy traffic?
Today Per 12z its looking more and more likely to have some major impacts from Irma to SC.. Landfall is also looking more likely!!
You know if you take away the far left and right outliers, the mean would be right where that green line runs.
Storm5
Member
That graphic is great for showing the west shift in the eps
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Well to have to state the obvious, you can't play a sport while glued to your phone....
Can't get anything past you... Lol. Actually the Op run and the mean crisscross right over Hilton Head SC,
Lol I'm finished now, didn't look at my phone once.... thank you very much
Obviously the west shift with the Eps is troubling because it was the one thing still showing ots solutions last night and now that's just about gone....
pcbjr
Member
Is that "!!" to express excitement, or excited expectations?
It is. Is that what the green line is supposed to show?
I do think a lot of people want this to make landfall as a cat 5. Some people, for whatever reason, love to see destruction. Im not saying thats good or bad, its just the way some people are.
pcbjr
Member
We have a hospital ward for folks that revel in other folks' hurt ...
All I want is to see Jeff take flight, that is all. Is it too much to ask?
WeatherWatch
Member
I've been seeing some questions rather or not Irma will go OTS?
Irma has a better chance at effecting land/making landfall vs going OTS. Remember, don't focus on excact track.
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Irma has a better chance at effecting land/making landfall vs going OTS. Remember, don't focus on excact track.
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From Huffman showing the shift...
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
So now it looks like it either hits FL and then SC or NC or both, or miss Florida and hit SC or NC or both. Seems like SC and NC lose either way.
Has any storm ever made 3 landfalls in the US ?
SimeonNC
Member
Would Tennessee or Kentucky be good evacuation places to go to?
Expectations. Really?? Excitement
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Ivan made 3, but one was a hurricane, one a depression, and the other a TS.
Storm5
Member
Good to know. It's right where I think the mean aught to be.
Hey I created a thread because I think this would be great info but could clutter up this one.... so can you move these post there? I can't or don't know how Lol
http://southernwx.com/community/threads/storm-preparation-just-in-case.234/
Yeah the blue was the mean, the black was the operational green as storm mentioned was the control....their pretty close actually
Freeze bottled water to kill 2 birds with one stone. Fill your bathtubs with water, not for drinking but so you can flush the toilet. Charcoal to grill outside, non-perishable food, etc. basically plan for a long camping trip!
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