ForsythSnow
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
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NWMSGuy
Member
Euro out yet?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Both the trough and ridge are stronger this run, wavelengths have shortened...
WeatherWatch
Member
accu35
Member
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Yes it s
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Euro is a bit South so far.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Ridge is also set in much more from the east.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah, looks a lot like the GFS. Jose is following too.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's not going into the Gulf this run, already turning north towards Miami...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here comes the reinforcing short wave over the midwest that will try to lift Irma northward
OTS option is still there at 144hrs.
Wow. Model madness continues...
Did it go its OTS??
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's a tug of war between the s/w diving out of the midwest and the trough exiting the northeast, even if it's an OTS route, a lot of direct impacts for the SE US...
Don't think it will get there, probably about to see NW as the Ridge blocks it and the ULL forms.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Hmmm. Looks like a NC hit.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's necessarily that the ridge is blocking it more so, the shortwave trough over the southern US is providing a bigger weakness than the trough over the northeast and thus captures Irma and is about to slingshot into the southeastern US...
pcbjr
Member
Very serious question - Does the 12Z Euro have recon data as part of its modeling?
Makes a difference, I propose, on the weight to give it ..
Makes a difference, I propose, on the weight to give it ..
Xtreme Weather
Member
Euro a tick farther W after the N turn with this run so far thru 162
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Recon says we may have cat 4 Irma...
183000 1653N 05346W 6946 02900 9750 +100 +100 153104 116 104 038 00
183030 1652N 05347W 7008 02801 9698 +111 +110 142088 092 113 010 00
183100 1651N 05348W 6963 02838 //// +119 //// 141091 093 113 007 05
183130 1650N 05349W 6965 02815 9617 +129 +123 146081 091 104 001 01
183200 1649N 05350W 6973 02788 9599 +138 +114 151081 081 092 001 00
183230 1648N 05351W 6967 02769 9572 +140 +112 152084 085 074 001 00
183300 1647N 05352W 6965 02748 9550 +135 +119 151081 084 069 010 03
183330 1646N 05353W 6957 02734 9561 +117 //// 154070 075 065 014 05
183400 1645N 05355W 6967 02704 9511 +131 +129 162064 069 067 005 00
183430 1644N 05356W 6969 02680 9472 +142 +135 167057 062 067 005 03
183000 1653N 05346W 6946 02900 9750 +100 +100 153104 116 104 038 00
183030 1652N 05347W 7008 02801 9698 +111 +110 142088 092 113 010 00
183100 1651N 05348W 6963 02838 //// +119 //// 141091 093 113 007 05
183130 1650N 05349W 6965 02815 9617 +129 +123 146081 091 104 001 01
183200 1649N 05350W 6973 02788 9599 +138 +114 151081 081 092 001 00
183230 1648N 05351W 6967 02769 9572 +140 +112 152084 085 074 001 00
183300 1647N 05352W 6965 02748 9550 +135 +119 151081 084 069 010 03
183330 1646N 05353W 6957 02734 9561 +117 //// 154070 075 065 014 05
183400 1645N 05355W 6967 02704 9511 +131 +129 162064 069 067 005 00
183430 1644N 05356W 6969 02680 9472 +142 +135 167057 062 067 005 03
whatalife
Moderator
GA/SC hit. Maybe 
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Xtreme Weather
Member
Well W at 174 riding offshore of the FL pen
Storm5
Member
YepGA/SC hit. Maybe
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GA/SC hit. Maybe
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Bingo
WeatherWatch
Member
I agree, the way the setup is at 500, it's looking like it will be between GA/SC.
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Sounds like the GEFS mean is a good middle ground and track at this point.
Storm5
Member
946
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Xtreme Weather
Member
Stronger as well about 130-135kt winds as it nears S FL
If you ask me.. So far Euro/GFS is in pretty good agreement on Major effects from Hurricane Irma from FL up to the Carolinas!! Who Agree??
Storm5
Member
Levi said recon just found a 130 mph surface wind in the NE part of the eye wall
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Posted that further up. It seems that this is coming from the outer eyewall.
Storm5
Member
Good agreement now on Irma approaching south Florida late Sunday
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looking at the data, this ERC should only last another couple hours at max, then we should see RI.
Xtreme Weather
Member
Until W trend stops still the chance that models can shift with overall track in the end
NorthGaWinter4
Member
FS, would the euro be a huge wind and rain maker for our area?
accu35
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Yeah, not sure but it could be real easy for Irma to creep up the west side of Fl if she wants to instead of east side. See it happen many times before
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