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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Xtreme Weather said:
Until W trend stops still the chance that models can shift with overall track in the end
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True but the idea of a North turn around Florida is gaining momentum. I guess it's possible an extreme eastern gulf of Mexico entrance but any further west than that is gonna need something like land interruption .

The western ensemble members from yesterday have shifted back to the east a little today

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Yes, I truly believe the West trend have stopped for now, and we may be looking at a south FL/east FL with Direct Impacts from Irma but we are still days out!!
 
Soooo trying to skim over about 5-6 pages or so and is it safe to say today's 12z models have halted (for now) the westward trend? Sure looks like they all are showing that north turn.... just when. Also I think it was mentioned but Irma is moving due west and is going to be just north of the forecast track not sure if this will have significant impacts or not

also I'll add if the Euro verifies your still talking a week away before landfall... crazy
 
aal11_2017090418_track_early.png
 
Arcc said:
Anyone see that, initialized Cat 4.
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It's officially a category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph as of the latest update.

Location: 16.7°N 53.9°W
Maximum Winds: 115 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 250 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
 
That would be super nasty for FL, GA and the Carolinas. Hmmm some model agreement? Did dr no skirt Cuba too?
 
If this is what it looks for Florida, it's going to be a matter of who to evacuate and where are they going to go when they evacuate? There's still a lot of time though.
 
I really wish Irma would just go OTS for everyone sake
 
We're to a time of where there is model agreement. Yes, of course, the track could change as the days go on, but I'm not expecting a significant track change. Either way, FL, GA, SC and NC (possibly even eastern AL, depending on how far west Irma may go) will see impacts from Irma.



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Nah we're still quite a ways away but it's surprising to see this kind of consensus on the track of a storm. Last time I've seen something like this while paying attention was the January 2011 winter storm.
 
There is massive model agreement with an eventual turn north hard to ignore that but as always just when will that occur....
 
Looks like theres still a good chance this thing ends up east of FL and not making landfall until the Carolinas.
 
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