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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Brick Tamland said:
The shifts have been crazy. First from the Gulf to SC/NC to the Northeast back to SC/NC and now to Florida and maybe the Gulf.
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Typical model behavior, the firest runs were flukes, followed by the deep trough runs and then the runs where the trough correcting less amplified otherwise known as "the north trend". Same thing happens in winter, which leads to heartache.
 
One thing's for sure: we'll have more data for these forecasts today. Probably means we'll see something totally unique and different. :p
 
ForsythSnow said:
Maybe it's the JHS rain shield. I believe it has grown to cover parts of SC and GA now, as well as parts of NC. :p
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Well, looking at the latest Goofy this one wants to come right over here. Last time that happened it trashed the RaceWay. I'm wondering now, if being in the bulls eye for a hurricane is like being in the foot of snow and sleet bullseye in winter. If so this storm will miss me by hundreds of miles, lol.....and no rain :) T
 
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 53.3W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and
Nevis. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the British Virgin
Islands.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for St.
Martin and Saint Barthelemy. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for
Guadeloupe.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
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GeorgiaGirl said:
Well, if there is a JHS rain shield that is expanding, it hasn't expanded to me lul. It hasn't rained as much lately but I might have had enough rain for the whole year over this summer.
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I had tons of rain right up until it suddenly stopped...like last year, only this year didn't last 72 days without a drop, and this mini drought ended with Harvey's last gasp 1.75 the other day. I'm amazed it can rain and rain then cut off like suddenly like a faucet shut off, then after a month or 3 it's back on again. If Irma comes up thru here I'll go from crunch to squish overnight, lol. T
 
FWIW 6z HWRF takes Irma over central Cuba at the end of the run.
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Allan Huffman has posted that the UKMET has been on the most southern end of guidance the whole time.

 
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