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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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I'm going with the Miami swipe, Ga/Sc border landfall, eye up through CAE and on to GSP ! Gonna be one to remember, IMO
Has about a 2% chance of missing any US land!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
We are within 3 days now of possible Fl landfall so im assuming the track wont change much in that time frame. Isnt the forecast track accuracy pretty good within 72 hours ?
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A lot can change within 72 hrs. However, I don't think there will be significant track changes within 24-48 hrs. Hurricanes can throw curve balls that no one can expect. Of course, in the weather field, always expect the unexpected.

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DadOfJax said:
Track can, and will, change quite a bit between now and then. It doesn't have to change much at all to make a HUGE difference in impacts from a local, state, and federal level.
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And especially when the storm is forecast to be moving basically due north near the east coast of Florida. One small wobble or jog east or west could make a huge difference in impacts.
 
FWIW 12z NAM (32km) will likely be further west than 6z. It's noticeably further SW (closer to Cuba's northern coastline vs. Bahamas) Atlantic ridge is flexing noticeably more further west towards the SE coast than 6z.
 
The damage in st Martin is unreal. We have a planned anniversary trip there the last week of October. Better make alternate plans

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I guess the Nam will spend the whole 84 hrs down then looping around lol
 
I'm going with the hurricane hitting miami as a Category 4 remerging and hitting again on the GA/SC border as a Category 3.
 
Lol the 12z NAM is close to a Cuban landfall
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SoutheastRidge said:
We are within 3 days now of possible Fl landfall so im assuming the track wont change much in that time frame. Isnt the forecast track accuracy pretty good within 72 hours ?
Click to expand...

Which track ... LOL!! I suppose the "official" track is the best guess right now. We are all watching and reading the updates and model runs. Unfortunately, but not surprisingly, hurricanes are difficult to forecast. With all the moving parts in the atmosphere, and a storm like this, it is almost a nowcast situation. Models are great, but they are not 100 percent, as all of us know all too well. It really is fascinating, but with people's lives and property in jeopardy, it is scary and heartwrenching at the same time.

Good luck to everyone in the path. Some areas will take years to recover. :(
 
I don't know guys, I have this feeling Irma could end up further west again, getting close to entering the GOM.

I was looking over the 06z GFS from this morning and I notice the trough nudges down to NC/VA. That could possibly push Irma further west. And with the ridge building in at the same time, as the trough continues to push off, this would possibly allow Irma to be pushed further west as well.


Euro ENS spaghetti plot still shows some tracks going through the extreme eastern GOM.
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k0skinne said:
Which track ... LOL!! I suppose the "official" track is the best guess right now. We are all watching and reading the updates and model runs. Unfortunately, but not surprisingly, hurricanes are difficult to forecast. With all the moving parts in the atmosphere, and a storm like this, it is almost a nowcast situation. Models are great, but they are not 100 percent, as all of us know all too well. It really is fascinating, but with people's lives and property in jeopardy, it is scary and heartwrenching at the same time.

Good luck to everyone in the path. Some areas will take years to recover. :(
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Well said ;)
 
NAM is creating a disaster for the Cuban coast . Good thing it's just the NAM

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Brett Rossio pointed something out that I'm curious about too. That frontal boundary may effect Irma, strength and track wise.
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BHS1975 said:
Current


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Yeah looks like a fairly pronounced NW jog over the last hour. Models have it taking on a more west track later today for a few hours. Let's see if that really happens .

The more NW jogs we can get the better it will be for Florida

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My Mother is flying out of West Palm on Saturday 12:30 eastern time to Atl. this will be a close call for the airport to close down, do you all think it will stay open until Saturday night or Sunday morning.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
What would it do for the storm as it head into Carolinas will it strengthen it or weaken it??
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Would weaken it and cause the conversion to ET to speed up. Bastardi sees this as dropping to a 4 but then increasing again to a 5 once it gets into the Florida Straits and going sub 900 in pressure before making LF. He also sees Jose making US landfall, probably Fla. but on a much weaker scale
 
MichaelJ said:
I will let Eric speak for himself but I don't think he means the Piedmont, just as it hits the coast. Also remember it will tarnsistion to extra

Would weaken it and cause the conversion to ET to speed up. Bastardi sees this as dropping to a 4 but then increasing again to a 5 once it gets into the Florida Straits and going sub 900 in pressure before making LF. He also sees Jose making US landfall, probably Fla. but on a much weaker scale
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Thats interesting because NHC has Jose getting nowhere near FL and maybe getting close to Bermuda.
 
sigwx said:
My Mother is flying out of West Palm on Saturday 12:30 eastern time to Atl. this will be a close call for the airport to close down, do you all think it will stay open until Saturday night or Sunday morning.
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doubt that flight gets off the ground. I have a colleague in Germany who was told that Ft Meyers is closing Saturday and Sunday because he and his wife were supposed to fly in for vacation. If they're closing Saturday, I don't see how West Palm stays open
 
TWC showing southeast FL having less than a 50% chance of having hurricane force winds in the next 5 days. That surprises me a little.
 
noda-wx said:
doubt that flight gets off the ground. I have a colleague in Germany who was told that Ft Meyers is closing Saturday and Sunday because he and his wife were supposed to fly in for vacation. If they're closing Saturday, I don't see how West Palm stays open
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That is my concern right now
 
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from
Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach,
including the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay.
 
sigwx said:
We got the last ticket so they say. She is 84 and she doesn't drive much, gas lines are very long and they are running out of gas fast.
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I would say you could drive down there and bring her back but the lack of gas may be an issue.
 
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