Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[Webberweather53]

Allan Huffman has posted that the UKMET has been on the most southern end of guidance the whole time.

Yeah Irma is already north of the entire UKMET ensemble suite so I don't think we're going to get as far south as it's advertising...

 

[Brent]

Paging Larry.

Has we ever had back to back hurricane names retired?

Ivan and Jeanne 2004 off the top of my head

 

[Tarheel1]

Probably been said before, but if this thing cruises along and misses the islands and Cuba, the whole SE should be on high alert! A track into Florida and up into the southeast, like last nights GFS, would be a catastrophe!

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Ivan and Jeanne 2004 off the top of my head

I think Gustav and Ike in 2008 ?

 

[Meteorologist1999]

So far on the 12z GFS and track further north!!

 

[whatalife]

Looks a little north at hr 54.


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[Webberweather53]

Irma is probably about done traveling WSW given the recent dramatic improvements in ventilation in the northeastern & northern semicircles, which is indicative that the northerly shear and mid level flow imparted by the high to its north is relenting. Probably won't see it lose much more latitude beyond this point... We've been on a due west heading for the past several hours...

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Yeah it appears maybe the southern trend has come to an end. Will we see a trend in the opposite direction now? That's the question

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I think the south trend has stopped for now.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I think Gustav and Ike in 2008 ?

Except there is an H in between G and I. Close though.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I think the south trend has stopped for now.

That doesn't sound good. That would mean that it loses its chances of hitting Cuba and weakening.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

That doesn't sound good. That would mean that it loses its chances of hitting Cuba and weakening.

Just a hunch but I think we start seeing a trend in the opposite direction now

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Except there is an H in between G and I. Close though.

Yeah, i wasn't sure what he meant by back to back. Gustav and Ike occurred during the same time period so that qualifies as back to back for me.

 

[Webberweather53]

We'll need to wait to at least the 0z runs tonight for the NOAA G-IV upper air data to be ingested into the models to see if this is legit but not a good sign to see Irma's WSW movement coming to an end already...

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Pretty much following the 0z run last night so far

 

[whatalife]

We'll need to wait to at least the 0z runs tonight for the NOAA G-IV upper air data to be ingested into the models to see if this is legit but not a good sign to see Irma's WSW movement coming to an end already...

Yep. That's not good at all.


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[Jesse]

Good for me, though.

 

[SimeonNC]

922 mb at hr 90

 

[Brent]

the upper level environment in the SE Bahamas Friday is about as good as it gets

 

[ForsythSnow]

We'll need to wait to at least the 0z runs tonight for the NOAA G-IV upper air data to be ingested into the models to see if this is legit but not a good sign to see Irma's WSW movement coming to an end already...

Yeah, because it has ended, it won't go further south, and therefore, the chances of it being shredded are dropping, unless we get another surprise, I don't think this is going to hit Hispaniola or Cuba like the last runs.