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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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I could see this going either way to be honest. I still favor a more eastern track, ie the Carolinas at this point for sure, however I could see how a western track could still happen. The reason I could see a track west is because this isn't going to be some gigantic trof that is coming in to sweep her out. She will def feel the weakness/break in ridge, but how far west can she get before that happens. That is the question IMHO.
 
Webberweather53 said:
May be a trochoidal wobble, but yes the last 3 center fixes from recon have been due west.
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Interested to see if southward movement has stopped completely now...
Last night official track southern most point was 16.8, that was the last fix...this morning official track 16.6 so if it's headed due west now it may be on the north side of their track just a hair but could have huge implications. Starting to think it does in fact miss Haiti to the north

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Storm5 said:
I'm with Shane on this one. I bet we start seeing a correction to the NE. I bet the ridge is being overplayed in regards to strength

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It's a hard one, could the GFS be over playing the ridge or the Euro over playing the trough. It's the trough though that is really the kicker, how much does it dig and damper the ridge and how fast does it pull out.
 
metwannabe said:
Interested to see if southward movement has stopped completely now...
Last night official track southern most point was 16.8, that was the last fix...this morning official track 16.6 so if it's headed due west now it may be on the north side of their track just a hair but could have huge implications. Starting to think it does in fact miss Haiti to the north

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me too! I think we should see that generally stop today, and more of a westerly movement.
 
deltadog03 said:
I could see this going either way to be honest. I still favor a more eastern track, ie the Carolinas at this point for sure, however I could see how a western track could still happen. The reason I could see a track west is because this isn't going to be some gigantic trof that is coming in to sweep her out. She will def feel the weakness/break in ridge, but how far west can she get before that happens. That is the question IMHO.
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Exactly. Even a small shift in track from 100 miles or so north of Hispaniola to directly over it could lead to a shift in track of several hundred miles down the road, there's a lot of non linearity here... Not only would localized frictional convergence, and disruption of low level inflow jostle the circulation around, but it would also weaken it in the process and then questions would begin to arise if the storm would actually be strong enough in the first place after land interaction to feel the weakness and turn to the north or instead keep moving west-northwest into the east-central Gulf. We still have a lot of questions left unanswered...
 
Radar from HH aircraft confirms the observations of double wind maxima as they passed through Irma. An eyewall replacement cycle is underway and thus Irma's intensification may be temporarily halted until this new, larger eye becomes dominant and begins to contract...
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Webberweather53 said:
Exactly. Even a small shift in track from 100 miles or so north of Hispaniola to directly over it could lead to a shift in track of several hundred miles down the road, there's a lot of non linearity here... Not only would localized frictional convergence, and disruption of low level inflow jostle the circulation around, but it would also weaken it in the process and then questions would begin to arise if the storm would actually be strong enough in the first place after land interaction to feel the weakness and turn to the north or instead keep moving west-northwest into the east-central Gulf. We still have a lot of questions left unanswered...
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Yeah, if this thing hits Hispaniola, all bets are off regarding track. It would surprise me to see it bounce around to the south if it approaches it.
 
I just have a hard time seeing this getting into the eastern gulf unless the above that Webber mentioned happens . I still favor just up the east coast of Florida

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last frame SW wobble.
 
Irma is intensifying in spite of an EWRC atm, which is pretty impressive in its own right. Of course, Harvey also exhibited similar behavior before hitting Texas and intensified during an EWRC, once the EWRC was complete it underwent rapid intensification w/ several attendant mesovortices becoming prevalent. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we see Irma exhibit similar behavior over the next 24-36 hours & underwent rapid intensification after this eyewall replacement cycle is finished...
 
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