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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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metwannabe said:
Just another image of eps and it's run right up spine of Fl.
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Still a split camp almost
 
Storm5 said:
Still two camps after landfall . One that bends NW and the other that lifts N then NE. The NHC seems to be taking the middle road at the moment

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Ya it’s gonna come down to how much does the existing trof moving through now effect it
 
Storm5 said:
Still two camps after landfall . One that bends NW and the other that lifts N then NE. The NHC seems to be taking the middle road at the moment

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They can't bite on that NW hook. It goes against climo! Middle of road is safe right now! That euro run last night = disaster for upstate!
 
The good news about Irma is, that it will be on the move and not stall out or move slowly like Harvey did. Also, Irma is likely to rapidly dissipate as the LP pulls off to the north and west.

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It does look like we are getting closer to having a consensus with the path hitting Florida and then again between the GA and SC border and Charleston. Hope the best for everyone in the path, and hope it doesn't have too much impact here.
 
WRAL weather has it coming in at the GA and SC border, but only as a cat 1.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I guess those huge mountains in FL will shred it to pieces. Either that or the cool atlantic waters.
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Ya, to be honest I don't know why they drop this toward the coast. Yes FL will disrupt a bit, but the 10,000 foot peaks down in FL should only hurt it a bit...lol. I have a cat 3 (maybe a high end one) coming up into the SE
 
BHS1975 said:
Nam still showing nne motion off Florida.


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Yea Nam appears to be the furthest East of guidance as of 6Z. 6Z HMON is similar to 0Z, eyewall though rides like right off Florida Coast and partially comes ashore at times. Then makes second landfall in Savannah/Hilton Head area. 6Z HWRF is similar to it's 0Z run staying further off Florida coast and landfall in Charleston.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I guess those huge mountains in FL will shred it to pieces. Either that or the cool atlantic waters.
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This is the same nhc who a few days ago had Irmas peak at 140 mph

I don't mean to bash and their track forecasts are better than anyone but intensity is still a problem
 
I'm going with a blend of the UKMET and Euro as a landfalling Cat5 on the Southern tip of Florida with the West/Central eyewall riding the Coast NNE as a Cat4 while exiting out in the Atlantic around Cocoa Beach, then off to the Carolinas.
 
Still moving at good clip which could mean more trough interaction.


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We are within 3 days now of possible Fl landfall so im assuming the track wont change much in that time frame. Isnt the forecast track accuracy pretty good within 72 hours ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
We are within 3 days now of possible Fl landfall so im assuming the track wont change much in that time frame. Isnt the forecast track accuracy pretty good within 72 hours ?
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Track can, and will, change quite a bit between now and then. It doesn't have to change much at all to make a HUGE difference in impacts from a local, state, and federal level.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
We are within 3 days now of possible Fl landfall so im assuming the track wont change much in that time frame. Isnt the forecast track accuracy pretty good within 72 hours ?
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Not sure, because when Ivan hit years ago it took a sudden last min turn only to make MBY unnoticeable
 
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