A lot can change within 72 hrs. However, I don't think there will be significant track changes within 24-48 hrs. Hurricanes can throw curve balls that no one can expect. Of course, in the weather field, always expect the unexpected.
Well saidWhich track ... LOL!! I suppose the "official" track is the best guess right now. We are all watching and reading the updates and model runs. Unfortunately, but not surprisingly, hurricanes are difficult to forecast. With all the moving parts in the atmosphere, and a storm like this, it is almost a nowcast situation. Models are great, but they are not 100 percent, as all of us know all too well. It really is fascinating, but with people's lives and property in jeopardy, it is scary and heartwrenching at the same time.
Good luck to everyone in the path. Some areas will take years to recover.
Nam? Or Irma current movement?
What would it do for the storm as it head into Carolinas will it strengthen it or weaken it??Brett Rossio pointed something out that I'm curious about too. That frontal boundary may effect Irma, strength and track wise.
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Yeah looks like a fairly pronounced NW jog over the last hour. Models have it taking on a more west track later today for a few hours. Let's see if that really happens .
Would weaken it and cause the conversion to ET to speed up. Bastardi sees this as dropping to a 4 but then increasing again to a 5 once it gets into the Florida Straits and going sub 900 in pressure before making LF. He also sees Jose making US landfall, probably Fla. but on a much weaker scale
Thats interesting because NHC has Jose getting nowhere near FL and maybe getting close to Bermuda.
I would say you could drive down there and bring her back but the lack of gas may be an issue.
