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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

ABC was the first to latch on to this ots solution 2 days ago. Given how dry its been in central NC, close proximity could be an advantage for drought stricken areas of NC, while giving the outer banks nothing more than strong tropical force winds. Of course, all this changes if it charges NW into the southeast coast.
 
Yeah the eps mean shifted north vs 00z . So everything today has moved a little NE .


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In general, the EPS seems to show an overall narrowing with what looks like the average being around Myrtle Beach to just down the coast some or the NC/SC border.

EPS is worrisome actually, while the mean may have shifted north as FS pointed out there are fewer ots members, if anything the path tightened up

I agree. I think we should focus on where the tightest clusters are.
 
Yeah the eps mean shifted north vs 00z . So everything today has moved a little NE .


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If anything, it's barely anything. I argue though it's further south earlier on at the very least. I still feel it's slightly south IMO unless there is a map showing 0Z from 12Z having the average shown.
 
The mean last night was around the NC/SC boarder the mean is for sure a little north of 00z . It’s irrelevant at this point anyway it will be different in 12 hours


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I agree but one of the reasons the mean was further south last night is there were more members south, even one in the GOM some what skewing the mean and it also had more ots solutions. This run has definitely narrowed compared with fewer ots solutions, anyway arguing semantics as it's not a final solution by no means
 
I know someone who just retired and bought a beach house at Carolina Beach. This has to suck for them.
 
Not much about the 12z eps really establishes a lot of comfort.

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Just another worrisome look at the eps.....
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Wow! North/northeast model movement was quicker than I expected, this could actually go ots. If it doesn't, someone better brace for impact.
 
By day 4 the EPS/GEFS are relatively close to each other. GEFS is breaking the ridge down much quicker day 4+. The EPS takes Helene and merges with a trough diving over the ridge which helps shove the Bermuda ridge west and pushing Florence on shore. GEFS breaks down ridge and thus it stalls just off the coast. We shall see which one is correct.

gfs-ens_z500aNorm_atl_fh96-144.gif ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_atl_fh96-144.gif
 
5pm discussion from NHC:
Florence is creeping westward (270 degrees) at 4 kt, trapped
between high pressure to its northeast and southwest. A different
blocking ridge is expected to develop north and northeast of
Bermuda over the next few days, causing Florence to accelerate
toward the west-northwest and northwest between days 3-5. There
have been some notable shifts in the model guidance on this cycle,
with the ECMWF model swinging to the northeast closer to the GFS,
and the HWRF model swinging farther south along the southern edge
of the guidance envelope.
Despite this change in the deterministic
ECMWF run, its individual ensemble members are still showing a
significant spread of solutions from just north of the Bahamas to
offshore the coast of North Carolina by day 5.
Because of this
spread, the updated NHC track forecast largely maintains
continuity and remains close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.
And despite the ECMWF's shift, this track prediction remains north
of the HCCA and FSSE solutions.
 
12Z MOGREPS has moved North compared to it's last run with majority of it's members going into FL/GA. Now it has some members between Orlando and Jacksonville, Fl. Another batch in the Savannah, Ga and Charleston, SC area. Then a few members North of there into NC. The mean looks to be in between Savannah and Charleston this run.
 
No comfort here either



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This was my concern this morning obviously there is still an ots chance and a well south into sc chance but the median track is scary for us

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18z ICON is going to be either a far eastern NC hit or another very close miss. Only thing for certain is it's back to being further south and west versus 12z.o

EDIT: Yep, it's a very near miss to the Outer Banks, way closer than 12z was.
icon_mslp_pcpn_seus_39.png


12z
icon_mslp_pcpn_seus_41.png
 
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