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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

GaWx said:
Here's some pretty interesting history going back to 1851:
Out of all of the 1,500+ or so TCs on record since 1851, not a single one hit the CONUS that moved NW-NNW-N (315+ degrees) east of 48W! Currently, the furthest east was storm #5 of 1906: it moved NW from 48.0 to 48.4 and then turned NNW for a short time before turning back WNW and later hitting the US:

http://weather.unisys.com/sites/default/files/mnt/webdata/hurricane/atlantic/1906/5/track.gif

IF Flo were to later hit the CONUS, it would establish a new record for the furthest east NW moving storm to later do so as it did so starting at 46.6W and continuing through 47.9W.
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Big "Like" on that one, Larry! ;)
 
stormcentral said:
Weaker means more west? Right?
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Yes... actually she's already "weak enough" to continue due west in the short term. She keeps weakening who knows, shear and dry air can really disrupt and even destroy the strongest TC's

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"The models continue to shift westward at long range, however, owing to differences on the strength and position of that ridge, and the official NHC track forecast is moved in that direction. "
1136142a0776e16ad2c7f1d33b8e8147.jpg


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It's been discussed before, but this is feeling a bit too similar to Irma for me with these gradual west shifts. I'm not as confident now that climo is going to save us from a US impact. No, I'm not supporting or rooting for this scenario, however, for some reason this feels like one of those "once in a blue moon" situations where Mother Nature decides to buck the trend. It's like 24hrs ago when Florence was a Category 4 hurricane. I don't know about everyone else, but I was not anticipating that to happen so suddenly (and apparently many model guidance wasn't either). Especially considering Florence was not under the most favorable conditions possible at the time. She was clearly fighting off some SW shear then. The only thing I feel confident in is that I'm sure we have another curveball or two, it's only a matter of will it ultimately result in a good outcome (in the form of a fish) or a bad one (US hit/close call).
 
I think it's safe to say it's CLEARLY trending south and west, and shows no signs of stopping that trend. What do you think the chances are that it goes all the way into the Gulf?
 
CMC headed for NC again end result not much to the south I guess it then just stalls near the OBX for days

UKMET looks like it would extrapolate into the Carolinas although it is also south from the 12z

GFS still well east of the Carolinas
 
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