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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

so, the Euro is showing the opposite of a recurve, and is literally bowing Florence back south and west? Wasn't Hugo always more south in its track than Florence?
 
whamby said:
so, the Euro is showing the opposite of a recurve, and is literally bowing Florence back south and west? Wasn't Hugo always more south in its track than Florence?
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yes Hugo is one of the worst hurricanes in the NE Caribbean on record(the areas Irma/Maria hit last year around Puerto Rico)
 
the differences in tonight's gfs and Euro are hilarious, lol:
gfs_z500_mslp_us_41.png
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png
 
AL06_2018090700_GEFS_large.png meanwhile almost all the GFS ensembles are out to sea... only 2 hit the US and both in the Carolinas

okay 3, one clips Cape Cod
 
Webberweather53 said:
UKMET ensemble looks ugly too.

View attachment 5908
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I see there are almost as many FL hits on this new UK ens vs the prior run, which is a surprise to me. However, the highest concentration has shifted from S FL to N FL thus allowing the mean track to be 2 degrees further north just off the SE coast.

Meanwhile, regarding the new Euro ens,
icon_eek.gif
icon_eek.gif
That one is looking just about as bad as that real bad one from a few runs ago. Ugly.
 
0Z EPS: worst run yet for SE. The worst had been the one from 0Z 9/5, when there were 23 FL-NC TS+ hits. This newest one has 30 out of 51 members as well as 3 TDs. That's a heck of a lot for 7 days out!
 
And the 6z gfs has a NC landfall on the outer banks. Each run looks more ominous for a US landfall in the SE. Thanks to everyone posting great content including model spreads and analysis. Keep us updated. Time for everyone to check out their emergency kits this weekend for sure.
 
2907319A-7B0C-4335-ACF0-C3F37DE94E79.png Euro ensembles have a pretty tight cluster over NFL and SGA. I think as of now, IMO, that area is most likely ground zero, as the track continues its Southerly shifts
 
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