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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Florence is looking better this morning than last night. Looks like it's getting out of the shear later today and per estimates it's no longer weakening. The speed at which it strengthens and gets back to a major hurricane will be crucial to the path as well as the path itself and the ridge strength. Estimates put it at a pathetic 37 knots or a weak TS but the NHC is going for higher values with their recent advisory of 55 knots. I don't like the looks of the models from last night at all and we will have to see what later runs bring.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Florence is looking better this morning than last night. Looks like it's getting out of the shear later today and per estimates it's no longer weakening. The speed at which it strengthens and gets back to a major hurricane will be crucial to the path as well as the path itself and the ridge strength. Estimates put it at a pathetic 37 knots or a weak TS but the NHC is going for higher values with their recent advisory of 55 knots. I don't like the looks of the models from last night at all and we will have to see what later runs bring.
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Models all over the map ... :(

eps_mslp_min_eastcoastus_156.png
 
Even if Florence intensifies more increasing the chance in general this could* OTS, I'm worried the ridge may continue to intensify as we approach verification and steer Florence towards the southeastern US anyway so it would be all for naught. A near 597 dm ridge is already pushing record territory for this time of the year in the western Atlantic...
na_f144.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even if Florence intensifies more increasing the chance in general this could* OTS, I'm worried the ridge may continue to intensify as we approach verification and steer Florence towards the southeastern US anyway so it would be all for naught. A near 597 dm ridge is already pushing record territory for this time of the year in the western Atlantic...
View attachment 5914
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Agree completely, it won't matter how deep Florence becomes, if that ridge continues to trend stronger it cannot go northward that much.
 
Latest plots.
06L_tracks_latest.png
 
I don't have a lot to add that hasn't already been discussed, but I'll comment anyway. I would not throw the recurve scenario in the trash can at this point, but I would definitely bet a modest amount against it. Given the progged ridging and the propensity for strong and sustained ridging of late, I don't see an easy escape for Florence. Even though she is approaching from an unusual spot (which historically is unfavorable for a US impact), the odds are high, IMO, of a strike or at least very close pass. As already noted above, low shear, warm SSTs, and lack of dry air will provide an adequate environment for strengthening up until landfall. The one saving grace *may* be a weakened steering current as she approaches land, perhaps causing a stall or slow-down just enough to give a trough a chance to kick her out. My suspicion is though, that an upper FL to NC strike is what lies ahead. And she should be quite strong.
 
Latest satellite estimate has this still near 25N although it's a bit difficult to tell with the disorganized nature of things. Interestingly the CMC takes this WSW for an extended period of time down to near 24N over the next few days but still hits NC so that will be something to watch as well.
06L.GIF
 
Will that low off the coast have any effect on Flo path?
 
Arcc said:
Dry air is still plaguing Florence and this throws another variable in the forecast. The models have always had issues resolving when dry air will be worked out.
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With shear apparently decreasing, I would expect Florence works that dry air out and establishes her core again within the next 24-36 hours. That will definitely play a role in the track depending upon how quickly she starts intensifying and how strong she gets when she does. IMO there is a legit shot for her to become a cat 5 once she gets further west into the warmer waters and low shear.
 
NHC at 11am:

2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts. Interests near and along
the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through
the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.
 
ForsythSnow said:
You do realize that there are no islands near this storm and that's a Pacific storm right? Also look at the coordinates :p
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Oh my Lol! I swear that is not what I shared, don't know if it's a time sensitive.... well that wouldn't make sense, dang it but I know that's not the image I shared, I'm pretty sure 1300 would have corrected me instead of liking it?? Wow Lol
 
Man, the forward motion really catapults the storm forward Sunday night through Tuesday. Seems like it would need something more major than what we are seeing to keep it from plowing into the SE coast.
 
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