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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Man, there are new PTC popping up everywhere. Hard to keep up
 
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Do you ever get that scary feeling?
 
Aside from Hazel, most of the category 3 or 4 hurricanes that have hit or come very close the Carolinas in the observed record come from the east or southeast, Fran (1996), Hugo (1989), Gracie (1959), Helene (1958) are good examples of this. These storms usually spend less time over shallower shelf waters, often aren’t experiencing southwesterly wind shear from an approaching trough, and minimize the amount of time they parallel the US coastline and thus limiting the ingestion of dry, continental air into their cores. The fact that Florence is smaller than the average TC only makes matters worse in this regard. Hopefully things change for the better soon because I don’t like the way we’re headed.
 
This is almost turning into a worse case scenario.... Florence still disorganized/weak enough to continue on the westward heading but intact enough that I see no reason once shear relaxes that it want take off like a rocket, and then that building high. Oh boy.. oh and now we're talking 5-7 days that's not necessarily voodoo land
 
packfan98 said:
Man, the forward motion really catapults the storm forward Sunday night through Tuesday. Seems like it would need something more major than what we are seeing to keep it from plowing into the SE coast.
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That’s the thing about Hugo, once it was under the ridge, it made a beeline for the coast and never wavered, and was moving very rapidly, up to and after landfall!
 
Tarheel1 said:
That’s the thing about Hugo, once it was under the ridge, it made a beeline for the coast and never wavered, and was moving very rapidly, up to and after landfall!
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Yes it did. The forward motion speed added to the max winds and allowed it to wreak havoc well inland. That could happen here, or it could slow and stall. Both offer potential disasters. There's still a little room at the top of the cone for it to escape, but it seems to be slowly disappearing.
 
2870A72C-8DA9-42BC-AD2D-EFEF0C3395EE.png B Rad says time for ready mode!
 
I want to remind everyone speaking of Hugo. Hugo was in a much better position for a Conus landfall to begin with.

Florence is a rare case so far. Do I believe it? Maybe. Just historically, she is against the odds. Lets see how fast she ramps up over the next day or so.
 
GFS has Florence continuing west with a little south of west movement in the short term.... let's see where it goes

Almost identical to 06 so far but it's very early
 
Shawn said:
I want to remind everyone speaking of Hugo. Hugo was in a much better position for a Conus landfall to begin with.

Florence is a rare case so far. Do I believe it? Maybe. Just historically, she is against the odds. Lets see how fast she ramps up over the next day or so.
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Yeah Hugo was being shot to the coast between the strong upper low and the ridge. It was even getting squashed in the process.


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Shawn said:
I want to remind everyone speaking of Hugo. Hugo was in a much better position for a Conus landfall to begin with.

Florence is a rare case so far. Do I believe it? Maybe. Just historically, she is against the odds. Lets see how fast she ramps up over the next day or so.
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Yes, Shawn. Hugo was much further south when it made its NW turn. Then it took off like a bat out of hell..and if the ridge modeled for next week is anything like that which Hugo had to deal with then I don’t see any other factor that will be able to keep it from turning NW. That stout ridge in 89’ couldn’t keep at Major hurricane at bay so why would this one (which is already sitting at a much more northern latitude) I feel like everything hinges on when this thing decides to ramp back up and turn to the NW.
 
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