• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Brent said:
if anything the Euro ensembles look more centered on SC, and still quite a few in FL/GA but it is 3am and I am very sleepy
Click to expand...
I really feel as if Flo will follow path along with EURO because of the fast movement and currently Flo is moving at a nice clip south of due west the last 2 frames.
 
a69b1cab3358ae43df40b9006781698d4dba741757880c2cb0833fb2887500f4.png
one more
 
accu35 said:
I really feel as if Flo will follow path along with EURO because of the fast movement and currently Flo is moving at a nice clip south of due west the last 2 frames.
Click to expand...

The building high to her north keep her on a wsw track for a little while.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webb, you think Flo movement south of west could put a new wrench on things as of the path she goes
 
accu35 said:
Webb, you think Flo movement south of west could put a new wrench on things as of the path she goes
Click to expand...

The movement has to persist for a little while longer to really make a big difference, right now just sitting & waiting to see if we start gaining latitude soon.
 
StoneMtnWx said:
View attachment 6030
Click to expand...

Despite my feeling the chances of being heavily impacted in my area were down significantly from how it looked Friday and despite every major 0Z model (except the just posted NAVGEM) being upper SC northward, the last 2 EPS and GEPS having a nontrivial # of members hitting CHS south to N FL and what appears to be Flo still moving S of due W (I think she now may be down to 24.3 N), are keeping me from reducing that chance further right now.

Note on this new EPS how the slowest developing members are tending to be on the southern side of the band of tracks all the way to the coast. Look closely near 68W at how many more blue members there are on the southern end of the band vs the mainly red ones (stronger) on the northern end. That chart is also telling me that if Flo is still not back N of 25.0N by the time she reaches 60W (she's near 55.5W now), she'd then be within the southern 1/3 or so of the members and a little S of the operational likely meaning southerly adjustments on the Euro to come.​
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
Despite my feeling the chances of being heavily impacted in my area were down significantly from how it looked Friday and despite every major 0Z model (except the just posted NAVGEM) being upper SC northward, the last 2 EPS and GEPS having a nontrivial # of members hitting CHS south to N FL and what appears to be Flo still moving S of due W (I think she now may be down to 24.3 N), are keeping me from reducing that chance further right now.

Note on this new EPS how the slowest developing members are tending to be on the southern side of the band of tracks all the way to the coast. Look closely near 68W at how many more blue members there are on the southern end of the band vs the mainly red ones (stronger) on the northern end. That chart is telling me that if Flo is still not back N of 25.0N by the time she reaches 60W (she's near 55.5W now), she'd then be within the southern 1/3 or so of the members and a little S of the operational likely meaning southerly adjustments on the Euro to come.​
Click to expand...

Yeah you're still in the ball game atm and I wouldn't rule this out until we've had 1-2 model cycles following when the HH planes get into Florence on Monday morning. I'm watching it's apparent south of west movement very wearily in Charlotte because I know any deviation to the west of the operational Euro will greatly change the impacts here in Charlotte.
 
The 5AM NHC advisory has Flo down from 25.6N at 11 PM to 25.5N now. I had guessed maybe as far south as 25.3. So, not as far S as I was guessing.
 
GaWx said:
The 5AM NHC advisory has Flo down from 25.6N at 11 PM to 25.5N now. I had guessed maybe as far south as 25.3. So, not as far S as I was guessing.
Click to expand...

Yeah that's definitely good news, I think due to the light northerly mid-level flow over Florence, the mid-level center might be tilted perhaps slightly to the south of the low-level center if anything. Hopefully we start to gain latitude soon.
 
GaWx said:
The 5AM NHC advisory has Flo down from 25.6N at 11 PM to 25.5N now. I had guessed maybe as far south as 25.3. So, not as far S as I was guessing.
Click to expand...

im showing the 5am update to have the center at 24.5N & 55.8W??
 
one two punch if mike tyson were a tropical cyclone eating down on miss carolina.... even if she was asking for it.
 
Florence looks way healthier this morning for sure. Florence is still moving west and hasn't changed latitude since last night. Not good about the models, but they are centralizing on Myrtle Beach to Wilmington. Y'all in NC better be preparing because this isn't going to go well and rushing at day 2 for hurricane prep never ends well.
 
Webberweather53 said:
UKMET ensemble likely still a tad too far south.

View attachment 6033
Click to expand...

I wonder if something just went wrong with lasts nights UKMet run looking at those ensembles.

I think this was mentioned a few days ago, but watch the size of Flo as ERCs occur as that will effect track. A smaller TC will act more like a bullet and will feel the northern tug slower.
 
Arcc said:
I wonder if something just went wrong with lasts nights UKMet run looking at those ensembles.

I think this was mentioned a few days ago, but watch the size of Flo as ERCs occur as that will effect track. A smaller TC will act more like a bullet and will feel the northern tug slower.
Click to expand...

Yes, a smaller TC with a smaller wind field experiences less beta drift so it gains latitude a little less quickly.
 
For NC, a landfall of Florence into SC would heighten the flood threat (which will be the main hazard here) since most of the precipitation will be near and to the north of the LLC by the time its inland over the Carolinas.
 
Webberweather53 said:
For NC, a landfall of Florence into SC would heighten the flood threat (which will be the main hazard here) since most of the precipitation will be near and to the north of the LLC by the time its inland over the Carolinas.
Click to expand...
Do you think 0z Euro EPS is more clustered around SC than the 12z? What’s your thoughts on track just your opinion?
 
At least we are still 5 days out? There aren't a lot of ways to polish this turd. The euro track couldn't get much worse for the I40 corridor from ILM to RDU. 111 just to my east and to the S of rain cold.

I don't find a lot of comfort in anything on the models this morning. The OTS window that was cracked at 0z seemed to have been closed a little at 6z. The 0z eps being south is great for my personal interests but does no favors to the carolinas.

I'm not sure the variables are showing themself right now that would prevent a major hurricane from hitting the Carolina coast line. I feel like these north to south adjustments are within the standard deviation of model error at the lead time we are. But again it's still 5 days out
4131e949d2592e5c3cb96d55e38c2fe8.jpg


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
At least we are still 5 days out? There aren't a lot of ways to polish this turd. The euro track couldn't get much worse for the I40 corridor from ILM to RDU. 111 just to my east and to the S of rain cold.

I don't find a lot of comfort in anything on the models this morning. The OTS window that was cracked at 0z seemed to have been closed a little at 6z. The 0z eps being south is great for my personal interests but does no favors to the carolinas.

I'm not sure the variables are showing themself right now that would prevent a major hurricane from hitting the Carolina coast line. I feel like these north to south adjustments are within the standard deviation of model error at the lead time we are. But again it's still 5 days out
4131e949d2592e5c3cb96d55e38c2fe8.jpg


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Was hoping the 0z UK run was a start of an off shore trend. Still 5 days out though.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Do you think 0z Euro EPS is more clustered around SC than the 12z? What’s your thoughts on track just your opinion?
Click to expand...

Yeah, there's no denying there was a shift in the EPS clustering from eastern NC to SC on the 0z run from last night. As far as I'm concerned, anyone from Jacksonville to Cape Hatteras is still in the hunt to take a direct hit from this storm.

AL06_2018090812_ECENS_large.png
AL06_2018090900_ECENS_large.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top