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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

GaWx said:
So far, the general public must not have too much of a clue because there were plenty of available rooms in various places. Maybe because it is only a TS and maybe because that position normally leads to OTS??
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Probably. Most people don't care until they see the dark clouds rolling on or the hurricane warnings being issued. It's still a week out but still better safe than sorry.
 
GaWx said:
So far, the general public must not have too much of a clue because there were plenty of available rooms in various places. Maybe because it is only a TS and maybe because that position normally leads to OTS??
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Or maybe because no one has seen the 5 o’clock news yet. I think if you wanted to plan ahead then you would need to do so by Sunday night. Smooth move booking a room. Most places allow you to cancel reservation up to the day of check in. If I may ask, what city did you book a room in?
 
Latest GEFS. Only good news is it's still 6+ days away from landfall.

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Here's the 12z model plot with the 12z UK on it. Extrapolating the motion out as it rounds the ridge this would probably landfall somewhere between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington area. Models seem to be converging on SC/GA border to NC as the threat area, in the coming days we should see that begin to narrow as models figure things out and we know the intensity. The data sampling Saturday and Sunday will hopefully help with refining things as well. One thing I've noticed is the models all seem to show fast motion as she strengthens and the ridging builds in. That won't leave a ton of time to prepare since it will close in on land quickly.
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GaWx said:
So far, the general public must not have too much of a clue because there were plenty of available rooms in various places. Maybe because it is only a TS and maybe because that position normally leads to OTS??
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Come on up to Greenville, SC! It’s nice
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Or maybe because no one has seen the 5 o’clock news yet. I think if you wanted to plan ahead then you would need to do so by Sunday night. Smooth move booking a room. Most places allow you to cancel reservation up to the day of check in. If I may ask, what city did you book a room in?
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Macon although I'm also considering a 2nd alternative much closer in, which is the kind of thing I've done in the past for storms. It wouldn't be easy to travel as far as Macon because another person has physical difficulties, but I figured this has potential to be so strong on landfall that it may still be strong well inland based on some EPS tracks I've seen. So, it may be best to get very far inland to minimize chance of power outage at hotel.
 
Shear is gradually decreasing now over Florence. Yesterday we were seeing 40kts and now it has dropped to 25-30kts. It won't be much longer before she gets out of 20kt+ shear and can start intensifying again. Considering how much shear and dry air is around, it's a bit ominous she's holding her own like this in such a hostile environment.
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GaWx said:
Thanks, Mack, for the idea. I've never been there.
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Oh I thought Tarheel was asking the hurricane to come to Greenville lol, misread that one.
Greenville is very nice especially downtown, very inland so even if the hurricane does go that way it shouldn't be too powerful anymore. At least, we hope
 
Euro definitely looks off on the intensity given it's currently at 996mb. It looks like it starts intensifying at hr78. It may not matter by the time it reaches the US:
ecmwf_florence.png
 
Something to note as well, as Florence moves to the west there is very little dry air in her path. Outflow is improving on the west and south sides as well. As soon as the shear fully relaxes I expect some quick intensification, probably a good bit faster than models show right now and the track will probably adjust north a little once that happens.
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snowlover91 said:
Something to note as well, as Florence moves to the west there is very little dry air in her path. Outflow is improving on the west and south sides as well. As soon as the shear fully relaxes I expect some quick intensification, probably a good bit faster than models show right now and the track will probably adjust north a little once that happens.
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Agreed. the Euro doesn't have it strengthening to what it is currently until hour 90. I expect it to be north of the current run by that time. Then we wait on the catapult and rapid intensification and ultimate path as it approaches the coast.
 
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