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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

The gfs has spanked the Euro before on tropical systems
 
GFS has been rock steady for several runs in a row. Good to see it off the coast, though the OBX will get roughed up.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh114_trend.gif
 
12Z UKMET: at hour 132 is a whopping 271 miles WNW of its 0 UKMET hour 144 although it is still far N of its runs prior to today's 0Z

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.09.2018

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 55.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2018 0 24.4N 55.9W 986 60 *****vs actual of 24.4N, 56.1W
0000UTC 10.09.2018 12 24.4N 57.4W 981 62
1200UTC 10.09.2018 24 24.8N 59.3W 972 65
0000UTC 11.09.2018 36 25.6N 61.5W 972 68
1200UTC 11.09.2018 48 26.5N 64.6W 965 73
0000UTC 12.09.2018 60 27.7N 67.9W 958 75
1200UTC 12.09.2018 72 29.1N 71.0W 953 84
0000UTC 13.09.2018 84 31.1N 73.4W 948 81
1200UTC 13.09.2018 96 32.8N 75.5W 942 86
0000UTC 14.09.2018 108 34.2N 76.9W 928 91
1200UTC 14.09.2018 120 34.9N 78.3W 962 54
0000UTC 15.09.2018 132 35.5N 79.1W 983 37 *****0Z was at 33.5N, 75.0W
1200UTC 15.09.2018 144 36.4N 79.2W 990 29
 
Last edited:
SoutheastRidge said:
Stalling would weaken it significantly because of upwelling right ?
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Yes. The gfs is uncoupled with the ocean and doesn’t depict the weakening. I’m not sure that we can pick and choose the parts of the gfs we can trust in this situation.
 
Hurricane hunters going for a SE-NW quad pass, we'll see if Florence's minimum central pressure has fallen any and get a precise center fix to determine long-term motion which looks like it's primarily due west at the moment. The expansion of the cirrus deck in the northern semicircle is a hint that the light northerly flow over Florence that was causing the storm to lose some latitude earlier is abating and thus we probably won't lose too much latitude from here.
 
Just recently I recall the GFS slamming Lane into Hawaii while the Euro turned west without landfall, I know different setup, region, etc but the GFS was rock solid with that track too until the last 24 hours.....
 
Looks like it's trying to pop an eye again on vis sat image....
goes16_vis-swir_06L_201809091620.jpg
 
metwannabe said:
Just recently I recall the GFS slamming Lane into Hawaii while the Euro turned west without landfall, I know different setup, region, etc but the GFS was rock solid with that track too until the last 24 hours.....
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Yeah the gfs actually popped some 597 heights this run but was north. I have a hard time leaning toward the gfs until we see the EPS and Euro go that way.

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Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 7h7 hours ago
Since Wednesday we have had this going inland over NC and then crawling into VA. Should this turn out correct, this is likely to be the worst natural disaster on record for Carolinas into VA Major hit combined with 3-4 feet of rain in some places over 3-4 day period.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Florence hasn't strengthened much at all in the last few hours or so, dropsonde still showing 984mb central pressure in the eye.

View attachment 6054
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Could wind shear still be keeping Florence in check from rapidly intensifying? The CIMSS website shows Florence threading the needle between two pockets of wind shear around 25-30kts to the south and west and north and east.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-ti...m=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0
 
There's a lot of hot towers firing up on the south and west sides of where Florence's eye is roughly located. Is it possible the center could get tugged further south and west into the contraction of that heavy convection? Assuming it's not close to perfectly vertically stacked atm, which I don't know for sure.
 
packfan98 said:
Encouraging. Any word on the strength of that ridge on the GEFS? If it trended stronger then the NE tracks would be all for naught.
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Ridge a little stronger in 12Z GEFS and keeps getting a bit stronger run to run.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
There's a lot of hot towers firing up on the south and west sides of where Florence's eye is roughly located. Is it possible the center could get tugged further south and west into the contraction of that heavy convection? Assuming it's not close to perfectly vertically stacked atm, which I don't know for sure.
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I think the stronger she gets, the better chance for more northerly component of motion. Very recently, I think she's actually had a slight northward component to perhaps as N as 24.5N per vis loop (though that could be due to a wobble) but I think recon was still further S near 24.4 whenever it made its last vortex report.
 
I know it is a lot to ask for the GFS to be right versus the Euro, but I hope this is one of those rare occurrences.
 
12Z CDN ens mean NE of its 0Z run. Weaker 500 mb ridge unlike 12Z GEFS' stronger one.
 
So, the UK and Euro both have it coming in with a Fran like path as a cat 4 and just dying out over NC after a few days. Hard to bet against that combo.
 
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