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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

At hour 120 this is racing for the SE coast. Based on the ridge strength and orientation, I would guess this will landfall close to the NC/SC border.
ecmwf_z500a_watl_6.png
 
I have never seen South Carolina emergency officials start the ramp up this early in my 20 years here (the 5-day forecast cone is still hundreds of miles off SC). I think that's pretty telling.SCEMD Florence.jpg
 
Right around Charleston, SC and strengthening all the way to the coast, increasing forward speed.... will be a long path of trouble

ecmwf_florence.png
 
This run ended up similar to the last one, but there are subtle differences. The biggest difference is that it is slowly strengthening until landfall instead of the 0z run which had a stronger cane but was weakening by the time it made landfall. Lots more details to iron out for sure...
 
Based on what I've seen so far the key is going to be how quickly Florence restrengthens. The Euro keeps Florence around the same strength she is now for 3 straight days. With the improving environment and reduction in shear I find that hard to believe... anyways I think the final key to the puzzle is going to be how quickly Florence regains strength to hurricane status and beyond. If she takes 3 days to get there like some models show then the track could adjust further south. It's been my experience that in situations like this the models are often a bit too slow... therefore I am expecting a shift north in the modeling if she indeed organizes quicker than currently modeled.
12z GEFS below, first run with multiple landfalls.
06L_gefs_12z.png
 
1300m said:
I think NC actually is a bigger concern, because I think the Euro/UKMET is underplaying the time it will take for restrengthening to begin, which will likely bring it back north a little. Not sure how much longer we will continue to see a south trend, because as it strengthens I think guidance will begin to sniff that out and start adjusting back northward again.
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Completely agree. Oftentimes the Euro/UK are too slow to pick up on intensification and weakening. The FV3 GFS has actually been one of the better performers in regards to intensity from what I've seen.
 
1300m said:
I think NC actually is a bigger concern, because I think the Euro/UKMET is underplaying the time it will take for restrengthening to begin, which will likely bring it back north a little. Not sure how much longer we will continue to see a south trend, because as it strengthens I think guidance will begin to sniff that out and start adjusting back northward again.
Click to expand...
At the same time it may take Florence some time to recover and it may also slow down some and allow the ridge to further build south ahead of its path. We will have a clear picture by Monday I believe as to where it's headed.
 
As PackFan mentioned a few minutes ago, the Euro initialized a little weaker than Florence actually is right now. Taking that into account I would expect landfall a little further north up the coast (based on this run)
 
ForsythSnow said:
At the same time it may take Florence some time to recover and it may also slow down some and allow the ridge to further build south ahead of its path. We will have a clear picture by Monday I believe as to where it's headed.
Click to expand...

Hopefully the upper air data this weekend will help with clarifying the upper level environment. The intensity of Florence is key to the final track and 94L may play a role with weakening the ridge slightly as well.
 
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