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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
As PackFan mentioned a few minutes ago, the Euro initialized a little weaker than Florence actually is right now. Taking that into account I would expect landfall a little further north up the coast
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Only thing though is we have no idea the exact pressure of Florence. The winds are estimated and still well above the estimated strength per the Dvorak estimates of a weak TS. The estimated pressure is 1001 mb per that method, but NHC's advisory is much stronger and has a deeper pressure. The GFS is too strong at initialization and the Euro is too weak per that, but the FV3 is just around that. However, we have no idea how the ridge or the environment will play out so it's best to wait until the flights tomorrow and the model adjustments following to see what's going on.
 
1300m said:
I think NC actually is a bigger concern, because I think the Euro/UKMET is underplaying the time it will take for restrengthening to begin, which will likely bring it back north a little. Not sure how much longer we will continue to see a south trend, because as it strengthens I think guidance will begin to sniff that out and start adjusting back northward again.
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I can see that happening, but from the look of the satellite, shear will last a while longer.

Secondly I don't know how much strength will be a factor unless it really weakens down. The question is when will it reach the edge of the ridge to begin NW movement and the trend has been for a farther westward expansion of that ridge. Even an insanely deep Cat 5 can only go so far north in this setup.
 

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HWRF is depicting a massive eye.
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Sandbar said:
Looks right now like a cross between Fran and Isabel track wise. Neither was good......
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Really as Larry (GAWx) mentioned earlier, there is no real comparison this storm has to others due to its course and position. The landfall angle on those two storms is much greater and the turn occurs sooner than it will here, which appears to be at or just before landfall or even not at all.
 
Hurricane force wind gusts made it hundreds of miles inland on this Euro run, even a landfalling TC in Charleston managed to push the envelope for hurricane force gusts in areas like Greensboro....

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ForsythSnow said:
Really as Larry (GAWx) mentioned earlier, there is no real comparison this storm has to others due to its course and position. The landfall angle on those two storms is much greater and the turn occurs sooner than it will here, which appears to be at or just before landfall or even not at all.
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Not calling for it, but don't forget Dora, that decided to never curve ... just seems we're still too far out to be pinpointing or declaring a bullseye ...
 
ForsythSnow said:
When has it not? It's got some weird algorithm that always produces too perfectly symmetrical storms with massive unrealistic eyes for the ocean it's in. Stronger storms = smaller eyes as do strengthening ones.
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I've found it useful in stronger hurricanes for depicting the type of eye and structure a storm might have. This should be a good test to see how well it does this year.
 
I'm going to chase this wherever it goes given it makes landfall.
 
I bet Flo considerably expands herself by absorbing 94 moisture and combine to one creating more of a storm surge and flooding
 
Yeah, it doesn't look like many of the EPS members are going to recurve on this run. The intensity over the next 60 hours will tell the tale. We should be rooting for it to get stronger more quickly...seems weird to say...
 
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