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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Brick Tamland said:
So, the UK and Euro both have it coming in with a Fran like path as a cat 4 and just dying out over NC after a few days. Hard to bet against that combo.
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I’m looking for 12z Euro to shift east away from South Carolina, but I do think North Carolina is the area that’s need to Pay Close Attention.
 
12Z Euro initializes a hair S of 0Z run and is further S at hour 30
 
I’m going to speculate that 12z Euro stays same as 0z or goes even more South and West of 0z
 
12Z Euro now same location at hour 72 vs 0Z Euro with slightly weaker ridge. It may move N of 0z shortly.
 
FV3 sticks to its guns, basically 5 runs straight now.

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Now 12Z Euro 50 miles N of 0Z Euro hour 84. So, following model consensus.


Edit: ridge about same as 0Z.
 
1300m said:
Based on my quick analysis from Animal Kingdom, 950s seems awfully optimistic (weak) based on how long Florence is going to have under such a favorable setup.
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Are you on the ride with the Yeti??
So Euro hits around holdon beach and gets shunted W towards CLT?
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Definitely was a shift west. Maybe SC is not of the Game.
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I definitely would not let my guard down. Good to see the governor of S.C. is having a press briefing and not taking it lightly. I bet the Euro ensembles will stay south and west. Probably will see globals move to that once they recognize the strength of the ridge.
 
12Z Euro pounds NC Triad to Triangle with 8-12" of rain! 0Z was concentrated near Triangle and further east.
 
Max gusts on the Euro, my house gets obliterated by 115 mph + gusts, Raleigh, Greensboro, & Charlotte all experience hurricane force gusts. Widespread power outages if this panned out, areas south & east of Raleigh could be in serious trouble if this occurred.
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So, Flo going over the Triad instead of over the Triangle would actually be worse for the Triangle, right?
 
Good news is this run is much faster once inland vs previous runs where it just sat there for days


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Eric, do you think the Euro may be a bit too strong with the ridging and we see more of a N curl once inland, like the UK and FV3 GFS?
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I definitely would not let my guard down. Good to see the governor of S.C. is having a press briefing and not taking it lightly. I bet the Euro ensembles will stay south and west. Probably will see globals move to that once they recognize the strength of the ridge.
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Agreed. Gotta keep watching that track, atleast for the next little while, Florence will not strengthen much if at all. Dry air is still causing issues.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Max gusts on the Euro, my house gets obliterated by 115 mph + gusts, Raleigh, Greensboro, & Charlotte all experience hurricane force gusts. Widespread power outages if this panned out, areas south & east of Raleigh could be in serious trouble if this occurred.
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Webb,
Stay safe ... if this pans out ... you and everyone else stay safe ... and when some old Curmudgeon says "I feel the pain", please understand it's true ... damn I wish y'all were not facing this and maybe, just maybe, it's a blip and won't happen ...
 
18z best track up to 70kt

AL, 06, 2018090918, , BEST, 0, 244N, 567W, 70, 978, HU

Lat 24.4 means straight west last 3 hours. On NHC track pretty much.
 
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