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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Here's a good one with the mean. Too bad it goes over my house!
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ForsythSnow said:
How fun, one member goes straight though here. NOT. It's those Savannah landfalls that plow straight though Macon that worry me. Many Phil would agree are worrying to his area as well. Unfortunately, the further south members may be stronger in the end due to more water time.
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This is one part of weather I don't do for a hobby or fun ... dadgum right I'm watching ... but also listening to myself ... it is 6 plus days out ...
 
ForsythSnow said:
How fun, one member goes straight though here. NOT. It's those Savannah landfalls that plow straight though Macon that worry me. Many Phil would agree are worrying to his area as well. Unfortunately, the further south members may be stronger in the end due to more water time.
Click to expand...

I’ve been lurking quietly and watching for the past day or so. That Euro run felt like a punch in the gut with that many members landfalling far N Florida and SE Georgia.

Not interested in seeing a buzzsaw hit the Georgia coast and slog inland toward Lake Lanier. Long way to go. This setup is so different.

Keep educating me and I’ll add whatever limited knowledge I can, where appropriate.

—30—


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1300m said:
It's honestly still quite a bit of spread (as expected this far out), just now we are moving away from the total recurve scenario.
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Agreed . The spread is still massive but removing the recurve scenario the shift SW in ensembles is pretty clear . My point was just glancing at the above image it looks like two camps on that run . I have no dog in this fight , just watching cause that’s what weather nerds do lol

Of course 94L could change all this IF it were to develop . Of course that does not look very likely


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With these tracks showing up, Shawn might need to evacuate!! Looking very Hugoish wrt speed and potential inland devastation! Just need to see how strength plays out!
 
The invest area near Bermuda will in all likelihood get sheared & ingested into the broader circulation of Florence, no doubt it could have a minor influence on its track, but Florence's large-scale circulation, intensity, and -PV output even its current state dwarfs anything this little system could spit out.
 
GaWx said:
Per Ryan's 12Z EPS tracks, many of them hit the SE as cat 2s with several even as 3s. Scary stuff. The worst run yet, even worse than the really bad 0Z with very few misses.
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Larry,
Here's hoping you can sublet your hotel reservations to some folks from New Jersey ... ;)
As Ryan said ... still a long way out ...
But, haven't I heard that refrain before somewhere? LOL ...
Best,
Phil
 
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