The longer it takes to gain latitude, the increase chance for the storm track to shift south/west in the longer term.
It still will be. Allan Huffman on twitter noted that the written discussion kept it as a 100mph storm inland. He thinks they just made a mistake with the graphic
He must have looked at the wrong advisory, as this is the latest.
The Models continues to shift further south and west something to monitor.18z FV3-GFS is similar to the 12z EURO, tracks Florence well west inland into South/Central NC.
thanks
Yep, he must have been looking at Advisory #41 from 11:00am which did show 100 mph inland; I made a screen cap of the interactive cone map at the time to send to a friend in Chapel Hill because I found it to be so alarming. If you look at the map now it shows 70 mph inland for hour 120 (which is from Advisory #42 at 5pm).
I pinned that thread from last year if anyone wants to read for advice or have suggestions to add.... thanks Phil
This reminds me, but I think we should make a thread for call maps, idea maps, etc for this storm.
Really too early to tell.... it could be anywhere from 40 to 100 gust
You may be a tad low, depending ...
TWC confirmed it was trying to form an eye. Will see
Yeah no doubt it could be and it's fooled me before, that's why I say a few more frames to see for sure but looks like a solid ring around it....
I agree that this looks to be dry air. Meanwhile the HWRF and HMON are a hair south of their prior runs.
Just one thing I hate to see
LOL, it to early to really say.
That's what I was using and why I said it would take a few more frames to be sure, anyway it does look like it was definitely dry air.... still some deep convection on the south side so it's trying to get going
Of course, that's why SC is also in the cone...... famous words "don't focus on a single point"
