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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

GFS is south again

I feel like a broken record

Still looks to be a northern solution though more towards the OBX
 
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Brent said:
GFS is south again

I feel like a broken record

Still looks to be a northern solution though more towards the OBX
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Yea and slightly slower..landfall is in the same location as 12Z run at 144.
 
Chris Justice says the stronger Florence becomes the harder it’s going to be for her to pivot away from the coast..o_O
 
Actually looks like 18Z landfall was a little North of 12Z. Biggest difference that I see is at landfall it's moving more NNW as opposed to NW compaired to 12Z. Never makes it as far inland.
 
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Stump said:
Starting to smell like a Myrtle Beach to Wilmington target, hope to be wrong. I feel like some of these models miss curve a little too often to the south.
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Im starting to think that area may be a target as well. For the first time im starting to get that uncomfortable feeling and beginning to plan what I need to do.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
1300m said:
So this is mostly off-topic and so feel free to remove it or place it in banter if necessary, but I was going to let everyone know that my contributions will be severely limited after tonight. We are on a long-planned family vacation to a certain theme park in central FL....

It's going to be a little eerie to think as I leave and dry southward that on the drive back the landscape somewhere along the way could look quite different in just a weeks time. I'm definitely concerned for all of our southeastern family and my prayers will be with each of you for protection of life and property.
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Enjoy Dizzy World, and as you head by (if you're on I-75) honk at the northern most Gainesville exit ... LOL
 
NWS - Raleigh ----------

"Residents of central NC are
strongly encouraged to closely monitor the latest forecasts and to
ensure everyone has emergency kits and hurricane plan in place. It
is never too early to prepare!"
 
Forecasters are all over the place. ABC and Time have it never affecting the US, curving out to sea closer to bermuda than the mainland. Others have it anywhere from florida to the carolinas. If it helps, the abc and time forecast was just released, so it may be that forecasters are now thinking no threat to US.
 
Did I miss the 18z gefs? Any maps, trends or other analysis would be appreciated. I’m curious if the sw shift continued. Thanks!
 
Avalanche said:
Forecasters are all over the place. ABC and Time have it never affecting the US, curving out to sea closer to bermuda than the mainland. Others have it anywhere from florida to the carolinas. If it helps, the abc and time forecast was just released, so it may be that forecasters are now thinking no threat to US.
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Please take this as intended (i.e., not personal) ... If Time and ABC are saying something, I'm moving 180º in the other direction ... but then, their broken clocks find themselves correct 2 minutes a day ...
 
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Here's the new spaghetti models
 
ForsythSnow said:
Irma wasn't very nice last year so I don't look forward to any repeats given that there will be less land to cover to get here if it goes for the GA coast. I worry for you NC folks in Raleigh if it heads there given it could have cat 1 strength on its north side if it goes inland near Myrtle Beach.
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A year later and I'm still glad and grateful the worst case scenario for me during Irma was losing access to the internet for a couple of days. Those constant 50-60 mph+ winds made it a bit hairy at times with the power and surrounding trees near my house.
 
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