Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[Brent]

Hwrf into the 920s pressure by day 4 and yeah that

 

[Metwannabe]

And Gov. Cooper has declared state of emergency already

Did I miss the 18z gefs? Any maps, trends or other analysis would be appreciated. I’m curious if the sw shift continued. Thanks!

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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If I may ask, what has changed in the last 6 hours to make anyone (ABC) think this thing is moving out to sea? Because the 6z Goofus just ran?

 

[Brick Tamland]

New cone

The HWRF is about a degree further west on the 18z but much stronger, showing Florence flirting w/ category 5 status in as little as 4 days.

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This looks bad for NC.

 

[Webberweather53]

Getting the NOAA G-IV data ingested into the models should help w/ forecast confidence, if the ridge is sampled to be any stronger than currently modeled, you can kiss the OTS solutions completely goodbye.

 

[Weatherlover92]

18z FV3-GFS , yep definitely further SW and slower. Eastern NC/Outer Banks landfall.
EDIT: Florence continues to move right up along the East Coast before making a right turn between NJ/LI coastlines. (hrs.156 - 204)

12z run

 

[Webberweather53]

Take it for what it's worth because it's the HWRF, but given Florence's history to even exceed MPI, small size, and environmental conditions it'll encounter over the SW Atlantic, can't rule out the HWRF being onto something here and/or discounting Florence becoming a category 5 hurricane sometime in the next 5-7 days.

 

[Brent]

Yikes

 

[Webberweather53]

HWRF is a nightmare waiting to happen in the Carolinas. The last thing I ever wanna see is a category 4 or 5 hurricane barreling at me from the southeast.

 

[Kylo]

18z GEFS interaction with ull in SE.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Take it for what it's worth because it's the HWRF, but given Florence's history to even exceed MPI, small size, and environmental conditions it'll encounter over the SW Atlantic, can't rule out the HWRF being onto something here and/or discounting Florence becoming a category 5 hurricane sometime in the next 5-7 days.

View attachment 5939
View attachment 5938

Don't forget to mention the 225 mph winds at the 850 mb level either! Reminds me of what the HWRF spit out for Irma last year.

 

[ncskywarn]

This would be a monster.

 

[Tarheel1]

Could get wet too!

 

[Meteorologist1999]

18z GEFS interaction with ull in SE.

That could play a big role also on where it go. What do some of you guys think about this feature?

 

[vtrap90]

Prayers for those in the path of this potentially extremely dangerous situation.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Prayers for those in the path of this potentially extremely dangerous situation.

+1000 glad it’s looking like Ga is going to be on the safe side.... as of now.

 

[ForsythSnow]

+1000 glad it’s looking like Ga is going to be on the safe side.... as of now.

Can't say a thing until the recon data gets into the models after tomorrow's flights. Still a chance anywhere from Jacksonville to OBX I would say

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Looking like Mack and I can watch this one safely from a distance (subject to change) I’ll take my 1.5” rainfall and call it a season. Wake me up when September ends

 

[Weatherlover92]

Convection has really been blowing up over the past couple of hours with Florence. She looks a lot better now than she did 12 hrs. ago this morning. She may be prepping to blast off over the next 12+ hrs. You can even see lightning near some of the heaviest concentration of convection.

 

[Tarheel1]

Looking like Mack and I can watch this one safely from a distance (subject to change) I’ll take my 1.5” rainfall and call it a season. Wake me up when September ends

I’m gonna just drop my guess here: we get 5”+ of rain and 60mph gusts as it hits NFL or GA coast, and goes right over us