Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[Brent]

you can just tell the NHC is really concerned by the potential here... I mean the east coast isn't even in the cone yet...

the HWRF may be overdone but there is a lot of support for a high end hurricane here

 

[Storm5]

I

gotta get through that shear first

Should be shear free by late tomorrow then it’s bombs away


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[Brent]

the shear has been well forecast anyway, the big shock was it becoming a Cat 4 the other day before the shear... I had fuily expected a naked swirl most of the week(and so did most of the models)

 

[Tarheel1]

Isn’t there a new model run or something? What about the NAM!?

 

[stormcentral]

Latest discussion on the storm is not pretty. Cone is SW again and the forecast calls for major RI and 130 mph on day 4 and 5. My worry is the repeat in 130 mph may end up putting day 5 stronger in the end. The cone aims for NC/SC border now.

Dear God. Help the Carolinas

 

[Arcc]

you can just tell the NHC is really concerned by the potential here... I mean the east coast isn't even in the cone yet...

the HWRF may be overdone but there is a lot of support for a high end hurricane here

That was one of the most sobering discussions I've ever read. Pretty much the gun is aimed and just waiting it to firr.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Isn’t there a new model run or something? What about the NAM!?

Gfs running now

 

[snowlover91]

Isn’t there a new model run or something? What about the NAM!?

Icon out to 126 looks like a NC hit.

 

[Storm5]

Icon brushes the NC coast


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[snowlover91]

Icon brushes the NC coast


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Very fine margin of error for when Florence rounds the HP. It’ll be interesting to see what the GFS shows next.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Both CMC and GFS are slightly east so far of their previous runs

 

[EastAtlwx]

Both CMC and GFS are slightly east so far of their previous runs

maybe im blind but gfs 00z looks slightly west and south of 18z at 12z sept 11..

 

[ncskywarn]

Both CMC and GFS are slightly east so far of their previous runs

Not really sure if the GFS is a bit East as much as just being a little slower
.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

maybe im blind but gfs 00z looks slightly west and south of 18z at 12z sept 11..

Out to 96 it's def SE of 18z. But like stated above, could just be a touch slower

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

It’s south or slower. Can’t tell just yet.

 

[EastAtlwx]

Out to 96 it's def SE of 18z. But like stated above, could just be a touch slower

yeah it is a 0.5 degrees east of 18z... at 96hrs

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Metwannabe]

It's almost identical to 18z just a touch slower, as mentioned

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[Snowflowxxl]

CMC a good bit south and west!

 

[Metwannabe]

CMC a good bit south and west!

It also keeps it weaker longer therefore the more westward track....