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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Weatherlover92 said:
Maybe it's an effect of what you're saying, but it seems like the convection is slightly being tugged in a WSW motion, but it's late my eyes could be messing with me right now.

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i see a slight wsw tug
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Maybe it's an effect of what you're saying, but it seems like the convection is slightly being tugged in a WSW motion, but it's late my eyes could be messing with me right now.
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Yes, the LLC was on the south side of the convection and with shear subsiding it appears the convection is trying to expand SW over the LLC. Tough to tell for sure since we don’t have satellite but latest shear analysis and current IR suggests this may be the case.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yes, the LLC was on the south side of the convection and with shear subsiding it appears the convection is trying to expand SW over the LLC. Tough to tell for sure since we don’t have satellite but latest shear analysis and current IR suggests this may be the case.
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Say hello to shortwave IR or night visible. Florence is still a good way off from major intensification.

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Arcc said:
Say hello to shortwave IR or night visible. Florence is still a good way off from major intensification.
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It’s helpful but still not the same as visible. I use the COD GOES 16 with the micro physics turned on which is similar to this just a different color scheme. The latest images are suggesting the LLC is getting pulled in and the MLC is trying to stack. A long ways to go but definite improvement and the core is probably reorganizing again.
 
Florence is really not expected to intensify much over the next day or two. This westerly shear, even tomorrow, will be near 20 KTS and even after the MLC and LLC become vertically stacked it doesn't immediately begin intensifying. It takes time for latent heating release to trigger changes in PV distribution, often a day or two after Florence has become better organized in general, for MSLP to begin lowering in a remarkable fashion and for the storm to have a nearly complete inner core s.t. more significant intensification can occur as the buoyancy reservoir (the eye) can close off, increasing the baroclinicity between the eye & the eyewall s.t. that the winds & secondary circulation become stronger. It seems that the earliest this might happen is late Sunday or even Monday.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Florence is really not expected to intensify much over the next day or two. This westerly shear, even tomorrow, will be near 20 KTS and even after the MLC and LLC become vertically stacked it doesn't immediately begin intensifying. It takes time for latent heating release to trigger changes in PV distribution, often a day or two after Florence has become better organized in general, for MSLP to begin lowering in a remarkable fashion and for the storm to have a nearly complete inner core s.t. more significant intensification can occur as the buoyancy reservoir (the eye) can close off, increasing the baroclinicity between the eye & the eyewall s.t. that the winds & secondary circulation become stronger. It seems that the earliest this might happen is late Sunday or even Monday.
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yeah I really hope people don't get complacent because it may not really take off til its in short range

Euro just looks slower/weaker to me
 
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