Hopefully, by tonight models come into line on where this storm will make landfall. I have a feeling South Carolina may have a direct landfall from this storm.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
If this storm has any north movement right now it’s WWWWWWWNWWWW
I only see the ICON out to 63 on TT, but it is slightly SW of it's 6z counterpart at the same time.
It will still probably be a miss, because, well, it's the ICON and it doesn't want to come in.
It will still probably be a miss, because, well, it's the ICON and it doesn't want to come in.
Stormsfury
Member
Hurricane Florence has straddled 25.0°N for the past 6 hours buzzsawing west along it currently.
Interesting graphic a couple of days ago regarding storms located where Florence was just a few days ago with storms within 200 miles of Florence... 67 storms since 1851 back on Sept 7th or 8th were within that 200 miles. ZERO made landfall in the US.
Florence likely will be rewriting the rulebook.
Interesting graphic a couple of days ago regarding storms located where Florence was just a few days ago with storms within 200 miles of Florence... 67 storms since 1851 back on Sept 7th or 8th were within that 200 miles. ZERO made landfall in the US.
Florence likely will be rewriting the rulebook.
BHS1975
Member
RollTide18
Member
Got a friend that lives in Winston-Salem and warned her about the possibility of some flooding, although the more severe flooding will likely be to her east right?
NCSNOW
Member
Brent
Member
looking at satellite I think recon is just in time for a show
Going to be a Cat 4 today.
packfan98
Moderator
Wrong. The worst of the flooding could be to the East, West, South, or right over her backyard. Too far out to say with certainty.
ICON still slightly SW of the 6z at 72. Looking for it to stall off the coast again. Looking for the GFS to be another far eastern NC hit again. Wonder how long it will take the to cave (assuming the more left solutions are to be correct)?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like Flo is starting to hulk up.
snowlover91
Member
Well that's less than 200 years of history... so while it may have never happened in that time frame it doesn't mean it can't with the right setup and timing of features.
I'm most concerned about the surge along the coast and then the flooding inland. If this comes inland and stalls, dropping several feet of rain, there will be massive flooding for someone.
South AL Wx
Member
snowlover91
Member
ICON at hour 93 is west some and hits near MHX, coming into better agreement with the other models now.
NCSNOW
Member
Im thinking this hits cat 5, cant beleive I typed that, but its rolling now over bathtub water and venting perfect, unimpeaded. Serious IR
Not just no landfalling systems, none even close......
RollTide18
Member
Well I didn’t tell her the last part but I did let her know about the storm though, I wasn’t sure enough.
SnowNiner
Member
Has there ever been a storm that ran perpendicular to the NC/SC coast and continued NW as the Euro shows? I can't remember it if one ever has. That's why I lean more toward a curve toward the N/NE as they all seem to do, affecting mostly eastern NC. I'd be very surprised if it didn't stay east. I know ridging and all, but we'll see.
Stormsfury
Member
As far as I know, only Hugo did such.
If the Ukmet, which I know has been all over the place somewhat but tends to handle the overall synoptic setup fairly well, if it had not been north last night I'd be about ready to sound the all clear for mby and focus entirely on SC, but everything but the Euro hits NC square in the mouth. Then again Euro is king.... epic model battle
South AL Wx
Member
Current evacuation orders for the Outer Banks. Via James Spann:
Brent
Member
recon approaching the eye from the SW
ICON has Florence hitting the outer banks.
ICON basically stalls in NE NC....
Actually would bring the tidewater region of Va into play, that's new
Actually would bring the tidewater region of Va into play, that's new
Brent
Member
already near Cat 4 winds in the SW eyewall on SFMR
K
K
snowlover91
Member
Yep based on the rapidly improving satellite presentation, this is likely a cat 4 by now and will probably make a run for cat 5 status before an EWRC starts.
BHS1975
Member
Probably would have to go back several hundred years to find one if we had records.
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Brent
Member
gonna guess we'll have a special advisory in an hour or two based on recon, likely a Cat 4 since the SW eyewall is usually weaker
Kylo
Member
Through 48 GFS isn't budging, it isn't going to change it's track. If anything it looks a little further north. Good news, hopefully it's correct.
Per the 12z so far its showing that Hurricane Florence should be moving Northwest now.
Brent
Member
945 mb 131 kt FL
GFS making a beeline for Long Island on the last frame of the image metwannabe posted above!
Solid Cat 4..... poop
snowlover91
Member
Here's recon... wow this is probably going to be around 948 when the VDM comes out.
Florence is having a RI this morning.
packfan98
Moderator
And the GFS initialized at 971 and doesn't have it below 945mb until hr 30...
Brent
Member
gonna get a special advisory I'm sure, they didn't even have 130 mph til 0z much less more