and a mighty big sw tug at that
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
5am NHC advisory shifted the long term track of Florence just a little to the left of the previous advisory and intensity at the end of the period increased to 125 KT (145 mph). Yikes.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I can't recall too many instances where the NHC has gone this crazy w/ an intensity forecast in the medium range. Yikes.
INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.6N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 24.6N 57.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 24.9N 59.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 28.0N 70.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 30.9N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.6N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 24.6N 57.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 24.9N 59.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 28.0N 70.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 30.9N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Florence has been tracking just south of the several most recent NHC forecasts, largely due to the fact that the storm weakened considerably to a TS and remained weaker longer than some models like the GFS for example, were anticipating. The next 72 hours are going to be crucial in determining precisely where Florence makes a direct hit on the SE US coast.
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,300
- Reaction score
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I'll be in Chicago roughly around the time this strikes the SE. Worried for my brother though while I'm gone as there could be a period without power if the center is anywhere close to the Atlanta area. I guess we'll have to closely see how this develops. Irma did some damage here and it was barely a tropical storm.
Alex
Member
Webber, can you recall the last time or two that they have? If not, would you know where I might be able to dig up this information?
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snowlover91
Member
Look how quickly she is organizing her core too.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_06L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_09.html
packfan98
Moderator
6z gfs is trying its best to have Florence miss the SE. it’s NE of the 0z run due to steady intensification over the next 36 hours. I would think that we should know by tomorrow night if there’s any room for a recurve. I put that at a less than 10% chance at the moment.
packfan98
Moderator
Gfs is nuts. It stalls off Hatteras for days as the pressure drops to 904mb. Highly doubtful!
packfan98
Moderator
i wouldnt write it off as nuts yet
I would agree, not 0 chance but that window is closing fast, now let's see how quickly or slowly it intensifies since this really is a major factor in exactly who feels the most impact..... next 48 hours critical to determining that
BHS1975
Member
Fv5 coming in a bit south of the gfs. Looks like it’s keying in on that weakness over the se like the gfs to turn her north.
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packfan98
Moderator
Yeah, I asked Allan Huffman about the run.
Really nothing to add to track thinking as the Eps really tells the story, as you can see the sooner it intensifies the further north the tracks and vice versa...
Yeah probably unlikely but look at the Eps, it has some members doing a loop off the coast..... longs way to go with Florence yet
The GFS may be some what of an outlier at the moment but little concerning for us to see it coming back north... the Fv3 is looking extremely problematic
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I wouldn't be so eager here. While Mimmic looks nice for the moment, there's a noteworthy push of dry air that's wrapped all the way to the eastern side of the circulation and will likely penetrate whatever core is trying to build here and cloud tops have warmed appreciably, this has a long ways to go before we see any very substantial strengthening. Even as the LLC & MLC become vertically stacked, it takes time, usually on the order of 36 hours (or more) for non-linear convective feedbacks and PV redistribution to begin in earnest and allow the core to warm again.
Really nothing to add to track thinking as the Eps really tells the story, as you can see the sooner it intensifies the further north the tracks and vice versa...
Looks like based on those members if it will take the NC or loop route it has to start the NW turn right now. Otherwise if it holds it's West track it's a bullet for the GA/SC border area. Makes sense and should be fun to watch.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Florence is beginning to mix and ingest dry air to the south & east of the center, it's going to be a while before we see this storm go nuts, likely won't be today, but later on Sunday or Monday different story.
