• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

packfan98 said:
And the GFS initialized at 971 and doesn't have it below 945mb until hr 30...
Click to expand...
If it’s that far off on intensity’s, the North track it keeps showing, could be way off too!? How did the initial position on this run, compared to actually??
 
packfan98 said:
And the GFS initialized at 971 and doesn't have it below 945mb until hr 30...
Click to expand...
Yeah sadly everyone is saddled with the logic if GFS is this far off you can pretty much sense that it gives credance to the more southernly track
 
It looks like the GFS assumes a NW track right now. That's not reality right now. I don't know if that means anything or not, though.
 
Kylo said:
Could the GFS be right, it's hundreds of miles NE of Euro at day 3.
Click to expand...
If the GFS turns out to be wrong, it's hard to understand how it could get more wrong as we get closer to 0 hour.
 
Pray the GFS is on to something. Maybe the stronger Flo gets, the better chance it turns out to sea.
 
Goofus going nuts, down to 927 @84 still sitting off the OBX

and we must be overloading TT website, it's very slow
 
GFS is starting to stall off the outer banks at 90 hours and is down to 921 mb.
 
I’m at work right now, but from what I can tell the GFS better hope this turns north west fairly quickly if it’s gonna make its track because of the short term right now it’s moving almost to West
 
Rain Cold said:
If the GFS turns out to be wrong, it's hard to understand how it could get more wrong as we get closer to 0 hour.
Click to expand...

Well one of these models, Euro or GFS, is going to be really wrong. And if it's the GFS and a Cat 5 Florence ends up plowing into SE NC it's going to be tough to defend it.
 
metwannabe said:
Goofus going nuts, down to 927 @84 still sitting off the OBX
Click to expand...
And with the slow forward movement at that point, you can throw the intensities in the trash due to upwelling. The glaring issue is that the GFS is uncoupled from the ocean is another reason to get rid of it. It's lagging way behind other modeling in many ways.
 
12:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 25.0°N 60.2°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph
 
GFS is out to lunch no two ways about it.... the Ukmet trended back south. I will not be surprised to see the Euro come north just a smidge and converge on the SC/NC border as landfall point
 
Let's see what the Euro says. Plus we're a couple days from landfall and things can still change.
 
Could be a wobble but last frame there is a slight northward component.... I don't think we can deny it's continued westward movement is concerning for areas further south but I also think we may be putting a little too much emphasis on the current motion, really any definitive NW movement should come later as it rounds the developing high to it's north
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top