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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Tarheel1 said:
B Rad P., the G.OA.T, says tracks are shifting North!????:eek:
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Probably basing it off of this but I wouldn't can't on that just yet....

06L_tracks_latest.png
 
i agree with webb, i just don't see how you can discount the 00z EPS all on top of the sc coast. it was a big shift south.
 
The main divergence in models occurs when Florence is between 70-75W. Some models are allowing her to turn more to the NNW due to a slight weakness in the ridge whereas others like the Euro and HWRF keep it strong and shove her more to the WNW.
 
Storm5 said:
Lots of concern over movement , should take on more a NW component in the next 18 hours . Everything looks right on track so far


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Whoa where did this voice of reason come from? :D

Anyway I did take one look at the 12z initialized hurricane track model guidance I posted above and may need to change pants....
 
Does anyone have the site where you can overlay the national hurricane center forecast tracks to the satellite picture. I can’t find it anymore, thank you guys and gals
 
deltadog03 said:
Does anyone have the site where you can overlay the national hurricane center forecast tracks to the satellite picture. I can’t find it anymore, thank you guys and gals
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Have no idea, used to be the floaters on NHC but all of that has changed.... I'm getting old I don't like change as much as I used to.
 
So it's the NAM and is sucks I know but @51 which is about as far out as the NAM is any good, it has that ridge oriented more SE to NW allowing a more northern movement
 
Mandatory evacuation of Hatteras Island, visitors and residents, beginning at 12 pm today.
 
So here's something crazy! I said earlier that Campbell University was sending students home tomorrow, I was incorrect. My daughter just called, she works with the Football team, their game with Coastal Carolina in Myrtle Beach mind you, has been moved from Saturday to Wednesday?! What the heck?! While there will most likely be evacuations ongoing they are anticipating heading there to play a game? No way.....
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah recon will be there soon, I'm curious to see what they find. I think she will peak sometime today, undergo an EWRC tonight or tomorrow, then the new eye will be much larger and a second peak prior to landfall is likely.
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I notice models have a very large eye at landfall with an expanding wind field, again a little reminiscent of Irene to me, long duration winds over a large area equals major power outages issues in addition to the other horrors this storm could bring.
 
SD said:
Its fascinating to me that models have set up 2 camps and really not budged

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And FWIW the NAM actually doesn't make landfall, starts stalling off the OBX at the end of it's run.... Lol
 
NHC says that watches could be issued by tomorrow morning:
Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches could
be issued for portions of these areas by Tuesday morning.
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metwannabe said:
11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 25.0°N 60.0°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph
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Is it expected to have dropped 24mb in a 24hr period? Also, I’m curious where this thing is at now compared to what the euro depicted last night. Looks like it’s still moving West..
 
Key part of discussion, this is going to have very wide spread impacts I'm afraid.... hope everyone is prepared!

As Florence approaches the southeastern
United States, there will likely be fluctuations in intensity from
eyewall cycles, but even if this occurs, the hurricane's wind field
is expected to grow with time, increasing the storm surge and inland
wind threats. The bottom line is that there is increasing
confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous
hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.
 
metwannabe said:
So here's something crazy! I said earlier that Campbell University was sending students home tomorrow, I was incorrect. My daughter just called, she works with the Football team, their game with Coastal Carolina in Myrtle Beach mind you, has been moved from Saturday to Wednesday?! What the heck?! While there will most likely be evacuations ongoing they are anticipating heading there to play a game? No way.....
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To be fair, I evacuated from Gustav in 2008 in New Orleans. The state waited an extra day to call for the evacuation because LSU was playing football on that Saturday. In the South, football is greater than death. :p
 
NHC track nearly the same and they mention that the corrected consensus they use has basically remained the same. For now I think that's the best course to go with and it doesn't look good for NC and upper SC with all that rain, surge and wind going well inland.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Is it expected to have dropped 24mb in a 24hr period? Also, I’m curious where this thing is at now compared to what the euro depicted last night. Looks like it’s still moving West..
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YES. it is heading due W at this time . i dont foresee it getting N anytime soon
 
From the NWS briefing in Raleigh this morning:

"Remember, beginning this season, dangerous high winds associated with tropical storms and hurricanes will be warned using “Tropical Storm” and “Hurricane” watches and warnings, rather than “wind advisories” and “high wind warnings. ”
 
This may have been posted and some of you probably saw it on Allan twitter feed, but Hurricane Hazel in 1954 (the one my dad reminds me of every single year) hit the coast of NC with 130 mph winds, Florence is forecast to hit at 140 mph winds, if verifies, will be the strongest hurricane in history to hit the NC coast..... let that sink in for a moment. God speed!
 
And FWIW the 12z ICON has the ridge oriented more SE to NW like the NAM with a more northwestward movement as well... going to be real interesting to see if the Euro holds firm in a few hours
 
A big triple whammy looks to be in store for the Carolinas: Surge, Wind, and massive rain induced flooding. Would never want to say "Harvey, part 2," but there could be some comparisons made.
 
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