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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

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GFS headed for another NC hit.... curious to see the Euro because it seems, for now anyway, that the SW adjustment in the models may have stopped
 
geez the UKMET Is almost in Georgia

0000UTC 14.09.2018 144 31.4N 79.2W 939 87

would be between Savannah and Charleston

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metwannabe said:
Also with it slowing down has those winds for over 20 hours..... reminds me of Irene, no thank you
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That would be brutal. The one thing I noticed about the 0z gfs is that it matched the 12z euro pretty well with the pattern as a whole through landfall. Its crazy to me they are in that good of agreement at that lead time. I don't like the fact that if you blend the gfs and euro tracks the center essentially would be over mby

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SD said:
That would be brutal. The one thing I noticed about the 0z gfs is that it matched the 12z euro pretty well with the pattern as a whole through landfall. Its crazy to me they are in that good of agreement at that lead time. I don't like the fact that if you blend the gfs and euro tracks the center essentially would be over mby

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I'm stocking up this weekend just to be on the safe side...
 
Shear is letting up and and center is pulling under the convection now. Florence could start intensifying quicker than modeled by the globals which may shift the track north some tomorrow if that’s the case.
Estimated position
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Shear map
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As am I. Reading the NHC's disco and the RAH's AFD for next week, along with the trends in the models so far, I can't remember the last time a hurricane had me this nervous! (Chatham County, NC)
metwannabe said:
I'm stocking up this weekend just to be on the safe side...
Click to expand...

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snowlover91 said:
Shear is letting up and and center is pulling under the convection now. Florence could start intensifying quicker than modeled by the globals which may shift the track north some tomorrow if that’s the case.
Estimated position
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Maybe it's an effect of what you're saying, but it seems like the convection is slightly being tugged in a WSW motion, but it's late my eyes could be messing with me right now.

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