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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Snowfan said:
Euro runs in like 13 minutes so let's see if the OTS trend in the models continue.
Edit: Actually it starts at 1:45 PM. Just checked the model time schedule.
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Big Euro run coming up. Will affect my wallet as it will be time this afternoon to start prepping, Gas for generator,bottled water etc.
 
packfan98 said:
I'm interested in seeing what the fv3gfs says.
fv3gfs_florence.png
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Check out Allan's tweet, I posted it above....
 
Its Mrytle Beach to Cape Lookout. Those are the goal post right now. I'm still saying NHC has it lined up about right, espeacilly if euro and ens hold ground. Course could be new data since 0z that's being fed, ingested into 12z cycle. So lets see what gives here.
 
Rain Cold said:
So far, we have the ICON, the UK, the GFS, and the CMC locked in on OTS or barely into eastern NC. As much as I’d like to give the nod to the Euro, that’s a lot of globals against. Wonder if it’ll hold its course? I would have expected to see one of those others cave by now. We’re not that far away.
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Hard to ignore most models shifting east, good news. Would find it hard to believe Euro doesn't shift east.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The synoptic pattern going forward is much different than what we’ve seen so far and many of those short term forecast issues occurred without the inclusion of HH data to initialize the model. There’s no systematic SW bias in the euro as you tried to assert earlier, there is in the UKMET but it’s been all over the place
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Like I said the pattern going forward is different so it may not be representative of what happens in the future. UK has been all over the place too. FV3 and Euro have been most consistent but I think the Euro is overdoing the ridging. I’ve seen plenty of storms where it nailed the track and others where it was too far west/south and you end up seeing the gfs and Euro meet in the middle. We will see soon enough what the Euro does but I expect a tick north in the 12z run.
 
Has any model other than the UK shifted west at all at 12z?
 
According to Levi, he says the reason why the model runs are slow to come in is because there is a lot of traffic.
 
Kylo said:
So we have GFS/CMC/NAVGEM are all off shore that scrape the OBX. FV3 looks to be east as well. UK in eastern NC. Sounds about right?
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About right, fv3 actually comes just inland in the SE part of the state almost identical to it's 06 run
 
I wish we could see the trajectory after landfall of these models. TT is going to take until about 5:00 PM to get the data out, it looks like.
 
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