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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Webberweather53 said:
Unfortunately, it's a very different ballgame down here in Charlotte atm, a track into South Carolina or even Savannah would bring the core of Florence into the southwestern piedmont.
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Very, very Hugo like! I know different angle and yadda, yadda, but CAE and CLT and in between, got wrecked after CHS was decimated!
 
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look at the left hook
 
metwannabe said:
Starting to feel a little better about mby, seeing it stay weaker a little longer and the eps and mogreps with clustering south. Still too early and I'm no way wishing this for our friends to our south.

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Yeah I think the far NE solution toward your area is running out of steam. I think the greatest area of concern is really the central SC coast from Charleston to myrtle.

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whatalife said:
Yep. That’s my concern at this time. I further south track around the Savannah area could be devastating for this area.


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Yeah that's the last thing I want to see, but I also don't want this to go so far south that it puts Larry and Phil in serious trouble, the very harsh reality is somebody on this forum is liable to get absolutely crushed by this storm & their lives will change forever.
 
SD said:
With what we are looking at at this lead time I think a NE trend is unlikely. Theres just too much of a blocking ridge to the north to believe a NE trend is likely. To me a shift a little more SW would be the more likely outcome. But again we are still 5-6 days away things will change.

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SD said:
Yeah I think the far NE solution toward your area is running out of steam. I think the greatest area of concern is really the central SC coast from Charleston to myrtle.

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i agree I think the NE movement would be the least possible moves at this point.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah that's the last thing I want to see, but I also don't want this to go so far south that it puts Larry and Phil in serious trouble, the very harsh reality is somebody on this forum is liable to get absolutely crushed by this storm & their lives will change forever.
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Unfortunately it could be true unless this thing goes through central Florida on the off chance it also has on going out to sea. Only possibility of a miss to members would be just south of Brunswick GA. Unfortunately that would bring worse than irma winds up here but at least it won't be as bad as a Savannah hit or a Myrtle Beach hit which would affect a large portion of the board. Very few easy ways out of this one.
 
SD said:
Yeah I think the far NE solution toward your area is running out of steam. I think the greatest area of concern is really the central SC coast from Charleston to myrtle.

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Myrtle needs a fresh start! J/k, mostly!? The far S solutions, CHS and such, still put a lot into the right front quadrant, or tornado side, depending on eventual size!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Myrtle needs a fresh start! J/k, mostly!? The far S solutions, CHS and such, still put a lot into the right front quadrant, or tornado side, depending on eventual size!
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Good point, the tornado threat will extend well outside the core of the storm to the right of its track and would most likely be moderate or high overall given Florence's projected intensity being able to provide a ton of low-level shear, at least more than we're "typically accustomed" to w/ a weaker category 1 or 2 hurricane that occur more frequently around here.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Good point, the tornado threat will extend well outside the core of the storm to the right of its track and would most likely be moderate or high overall given Florence's projected intensity being able to provide a ton of low-level shear, at least more than we're "typically accustomed" to w/ a weaker category 1 or 2 hurricane that occur more frequently around here.
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Not to mention this would be an unusual track for most of nc. Not very often we see a hurricane with a westward component to its track moving through SC. Would set up a good part of the southern half of the state for a long period of high wind gusts.

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SD said:
Not to mention this would be an unusual track for most of nc. Not very often we see a hurricane with a westward component to its track moving through SC. Would set up a good part of the southern half of the state for a long period of high wind gusts.

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Not to mention the immense rain totals that would pile up for the southern and eastern escarpment due to enhancement with that track.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Not to mention the immense rain totals that would pile up for the southern and eastern escarpment due to enhancement with that track.
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No kidding. Took the euro 3 days to get from the SC coast to SW Va that's a lot of deep SE to E flow for the mountains

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Storm5 said:
Recon on the way now and will be there soon . I guess waiting till Monday went out the window lol


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That's actually just a NOAA research aircraft (at least I thought?). The NHC plan of the day still shows won't get the big C-130s in there til Monday morning. Regardless, any data should help
 
SD said:
No kidding. Took the euro 3 days to get from the SC coast to SW Va that's a lot of deep SE to E flow for the mountains

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That would not be ideal. One mountain that is traveled pretty heavily here locally is down to one lane in each direction as one of the lanes is being eroded away on the mountain side from all the rain this spring and summer.
 
Webberweather53 said:
That's actually just a NOAA research aircraft (at least I thought?). The NHC plan of the day still shows won't get the big C-130s in there til Monday morning. Regardless, any data should help
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You are right it’s a NOAA plane
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