ForsythSnow
Moderator
Just got a chance to check in because I'm at work, but wow this escalated quickly. I think she'll make a run for a cat 5 for sure.
Euro runs in like 13 minutes so let's see if the OTS trend in the models continue.
Edit: Actually it starts at 1:45 PM. Just checked the model time schedule.
might be closer to 125 kt now
943 mb
I could see a run for Cat 5 by tonight
Wonder if NHC will do a special advisory at 2?
Check out Allan's tweet, I posted it above....I'm interested in seeing what the fv3gfs says.
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Yeah, seems to be similar to previous runs.Check out Allan's tweet, I posted it above....
Looks like recon found 143kt/165mph winds at surface last pass...
View attachment 6114
So far, we have the ICON, the UK, the GFS, and the CMC locked in on OTS or barely into eastern NC. As much as I’d like to give the nod to the Euro, that’s a lot of globals against. Wonder if it’ll hold its course? I would have expected to see one of those others cave by now. We’re not that far away.
Wouldn't say they are "shifting east" per sayHard to ignore most models shifting east, good news. Would find it hard to believe Euro doesn't shift east.
Wouldn't say they are "shifting east" per say
Little better Uk image.
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It's actually moving north of west now and appears to be more than just a wobble....Wouldn’t be surprised if it shifts west or south due to the continued westerly movement over the course of the day
Good point, should have stated they are staying east of Euro. Hopefully that keeps up and GFS is correct.Wouldn't say they are "shifting east" per say
Previous Euro run was much further South, into SC.Looks very close to the Euro.
The synoptic pattern going forward is much different than what we’ve seen so far and many of those short term forecast issues occurred without the inclusion of HH data to initialize the model. There’s no systematic SW bias in the euro as you tried to assert earlier, there is in the UKMET but it’s been all over the place
I'm moving up my Cat 5 attempt to before the 5pm update![]()
Didn't the U.K. Nail Irma?Has any model other than the UK shifted west at all at 12z?
ICON did I believe. It had it missing like GFS but shifted west to an OBX/MHX stall.Has any model other than the UK shifted west at all at 12z?
It has none during winter. Seen every member wrong beforeGEFS, mostly offshore. It should have some skill at day 3.
View attachment 6119
Grief..Looks like recon found 143kt/165mph winds at surface last pass...
View attachment 6114
Has any model other than the UK shifted west at all at 12z?
ICO
ICON did I believe. It had it missing like GFS but shifted west to an OBX/MHX stall.
Has any model other than the UK shifted west at all at 12z?
About right, fv3 actually comes just inland in the SE part of the state almost identical to it's 06 runSo we have GFS/CMC/NAVGEM are all off shore that scrape the OBX. FV3 looks to be east as well. UK in eastern NC. Sounds about right?