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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Slowing down turning north @96, catastrophic floods probably. And these are 850's but looks like expanding wind threat too
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Euro hits the breaks. Bad run for the Triangle. If this stalling occurs a bit sooner, much of the interior will be spared. That is such a precarious setup.
 
Euro is about the worst possible track and scenario possible... Let's hope it's wrong or otherwise the wind and flood damage will be catastrophic.
 
Euro never goes below 950 mb entire track, models under estimating strength

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Great, the Euro somewhat shifted N! Congrats RAH, hope you enjoy my rain!!:mad::mad::p
All I wanted was a little rain!
 
metwannabe said:
Euro never goes below 950 mb entire track, models under estimating strength

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The strength it’s achievin today, should help pull it poleward, and we all know it’s hard to sustain that intensity once it hits 150 mph or so, so that may weaken it before landfall
 
Tarheel1 said:
Great, the Euro somewhat shifted N! Congrats RAH, hope you enjoy my rain!!:mad::mad::p
All I wanted was a little rain!
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I know your frustrated and also being somewhat sarcastic, but give me drought over 100 mph gust and 15 inches of rain any day .... if you're spared, count your blessings.

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To summarize the 12z runs...
GFS - East shift, stalls off the coast then shoved west and inland.
FV3 - Nearly the same track with landfall between ILM and MHX.
HWRF - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
Euro - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
HMON - Slight west shift, landfall near MHX
ICON - Shifts west to MHX stall and then drifts north to VA
UK - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX
JMA - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX
 
Cannot get much more of a consensus than that.
snowlover91 said:
To summarize the 12z runs...
GFS - East shift, stalls off the coast then shoved west and inland.
FV3 - Nearly the same track with landfall between ILM and MHX.
HWRF - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
Euro - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
HMON - Slight west shift, landfall near MHX
ICON - Shifts west to MHX stall and then drifts north to VA
UK - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX
JMA - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX
Click to expand...

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snowlover91 said:
To summarize the 12z runs...
GFS - East shift, stalls off the coast then shoved west and inland.
FV3 - Nearly the same track with landfall between ILM and MHX.
HWRF - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
Euro - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
HMON - Slight west shift, landfall near MHX
ICON - Shifts west to MHX stall and then drifts north to VA
UK - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX
JMA - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX
Click to expand...

These are great, thanks for doing them for a number of runs now!


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Just wanted to say, I hope everyone says a prayer for one another as this is a life threatening situation . Please by all means, take care of your family, freinds, and yourself before and after this storm hit, don't let time go by and don't let this weather forum hold you back from you getting ready for this catastrophic hurricane. God Bless everyone.
 
I hate to be bothersome, but as a new user can someone give a quick guide to the locations that are being abbreviated? I can figure MYR is Myrtle Beach but not sure on others.
 
snowlover91 said:
To summarize the 12z runs...
GFS - East shift, stalls off the coast then shoved west and inland.
FV3 - Nearly the same track with landfall between ILM and MHX.
HWRF - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
Euro - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
HMON - Slight west shift, landfall near MHX
ICON - Shifts west to MHX stall and then drifts north to VA
UK - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX
JMA - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX
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Looks like Wilmington to Morehead City is a strong consensus.
 
SC_Wildcat said:
I hate to be bothersome, but as a new user can someone give a quick guide to the locations that are being abbreviated? I can figure MYR is Myrtle Beach but not sure on others.
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ILM is for Wilmington, NC and MHX is Morehead City. Right now the consensus is pretty close to the NHC track and I would go with their forecast as they have been nailing it thus far and the consensus is pretty close to their track with potential landfall near ILM to MHX area. There is still time for that to change but all the reliable guidance is targeting this area right now.
 
1300m said:
I was just going to post that under realistic conditions I could not paint a much worse scenario for the Triangle than what the 12z Euro just predicted.
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I've got a sickening feeling in my gut..... praying for a last minute OTS miracle
 
This is not looking good for many here on SouthernWX but should make for some epic board commentary
 
Euro has central NC up to northern NC in 45+ wind gust for over 24 hours.... with some gust over hurricane force, this duration of wind with rain will be massive number of trees down, power outages, etc. Dang!
 
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