ForsythSnow
Moderator
Not the loop again... It's going to stay there for several days again.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
CMC goes through SC and right into N GA this run.
Brent
Member
what exactly is the GFS doing? No wonder the NHC called it an outlier 
Storm5
Member
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Pretty significant jump north for the CMC
00z
12z
00z
12z
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Well considering how far south it was, actually matches up very well with Euro and UK now. The GFS on the other hand reminding us that we need to make American models great again.
Storm5
Member
Pretty significant jump north for the CMC
00z
12z
No surprise other than the ukmet it’s been the southern outlier
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Depending on what the Euro shows, I would narrow the target zone down to Southern South Carolina to OBX
Storm5
Member
The GFS could be correct . At this point all options are still in play
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
GFS is being goofy. Probably too far north, and CMC too far south.
Brent
Member
UKMET into Myrtle Beach, very close to the CMC/Euro
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
May be the first time I’ve ever seen a model show a cat 4/5 hurricane move SW off the east coast as the GFS depicts. Smh
Cary_Snow95
Member
Hard camp to beat. I'm willing to bet the Euro holds serve for the most part. As for the GFS I would assume it's error with intensity is playing a major role in its funky loop de whirl
Brent
Member
now the GFS headed for the Carolinas for real at 198
3 days of beach erosion in the OBX
3 days of beach erosion in the OBX
Storm5
Member
Why is that hard to believe ? The steering flow collapses and the trough is way back to the west . It could easily stall and meander for a few days
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Brent
Member
because a weaker storm is more likely to be steered by the westerlies(the usual flow in the Atlantic)
a stronger storm is more likely to feel a weakness and pull north
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But not a Cat 4/5, sure it could loop but it would be much weaker at that point
Cary_Snow95
Member
It does seem this morning that the window for a re curve re opened slightly
Storm5
Member
Yes it would be much weaker at that point because of many things upwelling being a big one . The point I was making was a stalling/ looping solution isn’t that unreasonable given the lack of steering and the fact the trough is way back out west . It’s clearly shown on this gfs run as the trough finally kicks it east a week from Tuesday .
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