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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

We all know the gfs has all kinds of issues . But holy hell , loop the 500mb chart from 00z last night to 12z today and look at the complete flips


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I'm really starting to wonder about the overall strength of Florence atleast in the next two days. Firstly the circulation keeps sucking in very dry air from south and from around the other "system" from the NW. Secondly, that other circulation is almost acting like a TUTT and is clearly visible on WV. Unless it fills or moves on, it may end up keeping shear higher for longer and keep allowing the dry air to penetrate the core. It is also helping draw the dry air NW.
 
Arcc said:
I'm really starting to wonder about the overall strength of Florence atleast in the next two days. Firstly the circulation keeps sucking in very dry air from south and from around the other "system" from the NW. Secondly, that other circulation is almost acting like a TUTT and is clearly visible on WV. Unless it fills or moves on, it may end up keeping shear higher for longer and keep allowing the dry air to penetrate the core.
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Wouldn’t this help keep this hurricane on a western path longer?
 
Kylo said:
Agreed. A slightly weaker ridge would get you a coastal scraper like the GFS shows.

The UK shifted NE this run too. Good to see.
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Indeed, as long as the NE shifts shift it on ots.... otherwise we are back in the cross hairs. Hoping a full ots turn with this one for everyone's sake
 
Have to hope the GFS is onto something, but it is not usually the model you want to bet on.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Yeah pretty big intensity discrepancy between the previous euro and the cmc compared to the new run.
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I think it's also attributable to how these models accept and assimilate certain types of data, the "acceptable" range during the processing stage for HH data is much larger than it is for satellite estimates for example in the ECMWF model. This acceptable data range is determined by nearby data so you could probably imagine given how tight the pressure gradients are across the scale of a TC (esp a small one) why ECMWF would do this.
 
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