• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Brick Tamland said:
I don't get the back and forth with it having tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds farther inland. The last update had hurricane force winds inland, and now it is back to tropical storm force. Everything I have seen today has said Flo is getting stronger, and could be a cat 4 or 5 at landfall. That to me says the hurricane force winds should be farther inland once it comes in. Very confusing.
Click to expand...
In sure if there was a 60mph ts there we would get our share of 74mph plus gusts

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
In sure if there was a 60mph ts there we would get our share of 74mph plus gusts

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah, I guess they are back to thinking it will downgrade faster again once it comes inland, because the timestamp on the map of 2 pm Friday is the same.
 
Kylo said:
GFS finally makes landfall in ILM, just 4 days after Euro does. Better late than never.
Click to expand...

Looks like the incoming trough should help move it along as well of course we know this run isn’t correct but if it were that would be great news
 
After 2 very comfortable days highs low 70s, warm front is on the move back north. Heavy thuderstorm inbound. Just what the soils need in preparation for Florence latter this week
 
Brick Tamland said:
I don't get the back and forth with it having tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds farther inland. The last update had hurricane force winds inland, and now it is back to tropical storm force. Everything I have seen today has said Flo is getting stronger, and could be a cat 4 or 5 at landfall. That to me says the hurricane force winds should be farther inland once it comes in. Very confusing.
Click to expand...

I'm sure it has a lot to do with the slow speed it's moving and being over land for 24 hours and only moving that short of a distance.
 
NCSNOW said:
After 2 very comfortable days highs low 70s, warm front is on the move back north. Heavy thuderstorm inbound. Just what the soils need in preparation for Florence latter this week
Click to expand...
Heavy storms 2 nights ago and another round incoming. Firewood will be abundant this winter.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Yeah, I guess they are back to thinking it will downgrade faster again once it comes inland, because the timestamp on the map of 2 pm Friday is the same.
Click to expand...
Euro was a pretty rapid spin down of sustained winds. Here is 1pm Friday with sustained winds and gusts
f277d7d7738ca5ebdb18916b74e0d286.jpg
d7296150c4762aa2c0a2df8f8724745b.jpg


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
If there is ever a time we need the gfs to be right , let it be the 18z run . Meanders offshore for a few days loops around , makes landfall and the incoming trough quickly picks it up and moves it to the north . That run would drastically reduce the flooding threat

One can hope


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
It appears an EWRC may be beginning based on a recent microwave pass. It’s hard to tell since it was a partial pass... but the HMON yesterday predicted an EWRC starting this afternoon.

HMON EWRC prediction for 21z today, notice concentric eyewalls
41153E49-5F07-4627-AB04-D348842FA3A1.png
Now notice a recent microwave pass. It’s not complete but there seems to be a hint of concentric eyewalls.
9EB787C7-BCEF-4639-8CB2-C9B891E26AAA.png
 
snowlover91 said:
It appears an EWRC may be beginning based on a recent microwave pass. It’s hard to tell since it was a partial pass... but the HMON yesterday predicted an EWRC starting this afternoon.

HMON EWRC prediction for 21z today, notice concentric eyewalls
View attachment 6132
Now notice a recent microwave pass. It’s not complete but there seems to be a hint of concentric eyewalls.
View attachment 6131
Click to expand...
From the microwave imagery, it looks like it's going to be awhile before the ERC actually happens if that is the case. It's only got about 30% of an outer eyewall if you can even call it that seeing it's still relatively connected and may just be an energy feed. As for the HMON, it's no longer calling for one as of 18Z, and it's calling for a cat 5 by tonight or tomorrow morning now too.

On another note, the next plane is arriving in the storm now for low level recon.
 
Not saying it's impossible. But honestly the way the GFS has been looping Florence around it almost leads me to believe it may ultimately trend the direction of the Euro. Just in a different way because I don't think the ridge would allow it to get that far North just sit there then push it back Southwest in the long run. Instead of pushing it more West to begin with like the Euro shows
 
Brick Tamland said:
I don't get the back and forth with it having tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds farther inland. The last update had hurricane force winds inland, and now it is back to tropical storm force. Everything I have seen today has said Flo is getting stronger, and could be a cat 4 or 5 at landfall. That to me says the hurricane force winds should be farther inland once it comes in. Very confusing.
Click to expand...

All depends how long it takes for the storm to get to a particular location after landfall. Lets say Flo hit with 150mph sustained winds and MyBackYard is in the path 180 miles inland... if Flo was moving at 15mph I would expect Flo to take 12 hours to reach me and deliver 75mph sustained...but if Flo was moving at a slower speed of 10mph I would expect Flo to reach me in 18 hours and deliver 55mph sustained. Either way power is probably going off.
 
cyclogent said:
All depends how long it takes for the storm to get to a particular location after landfall. Lets say Flo hit with 150mph sustained winds and MyBackYard is in the path 180 miles inland... if Flo was moving at 15mph I would expect Flo to take 12 hours to reach me and deliver 75mph sustained...but if Flo was moving at a slower speed of 10mph I would expect Flo to reach me in 18 hours and deliver 55mph sustained. Either way power is probably going off.
Click to expand...
And the other factor, is longer time frame equals higher precip amounts, so saturated ground with trees and 55 may have same overall result as 75 with firmer soils..
 
Looking at IR, it definitely appears to have peaked for the next little while.
 

Attachments

  • GOES22572018253P0WGkN.jpg
    GOES22572018253P0WGkN.jpg
    77.1 KB · Views: 33
Flo looks like a hot dump right now! Seriously, the southern side of the storm is having issues!
 
ForsythSnow said:
From the microwave imagery, it looks like it's going to be awhile before the ERC actually happens if that is the case. It's only got about 30% of an outer eyewall if you can even call it that seeing it's still relatively connected and may just be an energy feed. As for the HMON, it's no longer calling for one as of 18Z, and it's calling for a cat 5 by tonight or tomorrow morning now too.

On another note, the next plane is arriving in the storm now for low level recon.
Click to expand...

Yeah it’s hard to tell but from the southern half it definitely looks like the start of one, in the very early stages. It probably won’t be until tomorrow until it completes unless it does one of the fast ones where they merge seamlessly. There have been some typhoons and hurricanes which have done that although it’s very rare. It’s still showing a much larger eye forming so we will have to see how it all unfolds.
 
522DA6E4-1A49-4B11-A0F1-EFDC9BEA3144.jpeg Seriously?????? All SC schools on a line from approximately CAE to FLO and government offices are closed tomorrow, until further notice! They must be hugging the Euro!!!
 
One major factor to watch over the next 24 hours is the forward speed. This will be the key to where the storm will stall. The faster it moves early on, the further inland it will go causing more issues with flooding in more populated areas.
 
Tarheel1 said:
View attachment 6137 Seriously?????? All SC schools on a line from approximately CAE to FLO and government offices are closed tomorrow, until further notice! They must be hugging the Euro!!!
Click to expand...

I live in midlands of S.C. when coast is evacuated Columbia is where everyone comes. Roads kept free of school traffic. Also school buses are used to help evacuate those in low country
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top